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May 23, 2017

A big MLB underdog presents value tonight.

Take Detroit Tigers as +212 underdogs on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 6.36%.
(Zimmermann must start for wager to have action)

These odds completely disrespect not only Jordan Zimmermann as the starting pitcher but also proven Tiger bats like Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, former Astro JD Martinez and company! Yes, Houston is playing well right now and owns the top mark in the Majors but they shouldn't be nearly -250 favorites in this contest! Detroit isn't a push-over and has a chance to walk out with a 'W'. At these odds, they're certainly worth a shot as the payoff is more than double the risk.

Jordan Zimmermann is off to a poor start this season but is a proven starter in the Majors and is likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. No, he's not Clayton Kershaw by any means but he's an experenced competitor on the mound and one that rarely walks batters. The towering right-hander is usually 'all-business' and has a poker face about him that showcases his professionalism and competitive streak. He never gives much away and had the same look on his face when he got off to a tremendous start thanks to a 7-0 record! Now he's struggling and yet his body language remains pretty much the same. As a grounded individual, he doesn't get too high or low and knows he's had some tough luck this year. 

The former Washington Nationals pitcher has been excellent in three previous career starts against Houston, going 2-0 with a miniscule 0.47 ERA! We don't expect him to be as sharp tonight but do believe he might record a quality start and fare better than some of his previous outings this season. He's being completely written off by many and that isn't fair in our opinion. Articles have been written about what an expensive flop he is, etc. but it's still early in the season and he's not a hurler that shies away from pressure. He's mentally strong and has a determination about him which makes a bounce-back likely.

Lance McCullers Jr. will take the hill for the 'Stros and not much negative can be said about him. He's a quality young pitcher that is growing in confidence and performing well. We simply believe he and Houston are not as superior in this matchup as these steep odds suggest and that means all the value is on the visiting underdogs tonight. It should also be noted that McCullers may fail to produce his best outing given that he's used to having Brian McCann behind home plate this season but will have to instead settle for Juan Centeno tonight. McCann is on the DL due to a concussion and that means Centeno has been recalled from Triple-A to work with the young pitcher tonight. 

Detroit got another quality start from Michael Fulmer yesterday and while they fell just short in that game, it sets them up with a realistic chance of upsetting the odds tonight. Fulmer went 7 strong innings for Brad Ausmus' side meaning only one reliever (Shane Greene) was called upon from the bullpen. Greene pitched the 8th inning and kept the 'pen fresh for this contest tonight. Houston, on the other hand, had to go to several pitchers to get the 27 required outs and might have some tired arms tonight. That could especially be true for closer Ken Giles, who's now pitched on two consecutive days! All these little factors mean Detroit is a live underdog in this contest and worth the gamble at these attractive odds!

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