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May 22, 2017

There is one pick tonight. 

Take San Antonio Spurs +12 spread against Golden State Warriors for 3% of the bankroll.

The San Antonio Spurs find themselves down 0-3 in their series with the Golden State Warriors and will be in full-blown desperation mode tonight as they try to avoid getting swept.

Injuries have certainly piled up for the Spurs this postseason as both Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard have missed time with various injuries. Losing their veteran guard in Parker and best two-way player in Leonard is certainly a big reason why the Spurs have struggled in recent contests. Had those players still been on the court, we could be (potentially) looking at a much different scenario tonight. That being said, San Antonio is still a veteran team, with loads of talent and a Hall of Fame coach on the sidelines. While they may be outgunned by the Golden State Warriors, we don't believe they will simply roll over and go away quietly. Their motivation alone tonight should be enough to keep this do-or-die situation competitive and allow the Spurs to stay with this generous point spread.

The Golden State Warriors are no doubt the team to beat in the West and have made a torrid run through their postseason opponents. They are on an undefeated run thus far and are one game away from clinching their third straight NBA Finals Appearance. The Warriors have won their last two games over the Spurs in convincing fashion, however we don't believe this contest will come as easy. The Spurs are not a team that can ever be overlooked or counted out, especially at home in San Antonio as they are not a team that loses often on their homecourt. The Spurs have lost just 12 times on their home floor this season and have had the chance to avenge those losses 9 times. They are 7-2 ATS and 6-3 straight up when revenging a home loss to an opponent this season and you can bet that they will be looking for revenge tonight.

Whether San Antonio extends this series for another game or not is debatable, but just like we saw an outmatched Celtics team rally last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers, we wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome tonight in San Antonio. That being said, we do believe the Spurs will be much more competitive in this contest, especially with their season on the line. They should find a way to rally around each other for just one more game and at the very least keep things close. This is simply too many points to lay in San Antonio. The value is with the home team.

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