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May 18, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Toronto Blue Jays (-125) on the ML against Cincinnati Reds risking 3.75% to win 3%.
(Stroman and Teheran must start for wager to have action)

This series has been completely one-sided up until this point with the Atlanta Braves having taken the first three games of the series, including two in the Rogers Center, however we believe this is a matchup that should favor the Blue Jays. Not only will Toronto have the added motivation of trying to prevent a four-game sweep, we also believe they have the better pitcher on the mound in Marcus Stroman.

Stroman has 8 starts under his belt already this season and comes into this matchup with a respectable 3-2 record and 3.33 ERA. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Julio Teheran has been wildly inconsistent recently, having given up 10 runs in his last 17 innings pitched, including 3 homeruns. It has been a weird season for Teheran as he is one of the few pitchers in the league who has actually performed worse at home than on the road this season. Teheran is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA and WHIP of 1.857 in 4 starts at home this season. What's even more interesting is that of his 21 earned runs given up thus far this season, 19 of those have come in this ballpark! Teheran also hasn't had much success against the Blue Jays in his career as he is winless in 3 career outings and sports a less-than impressive 6.60 ERA. Given the desperation that should be in the Blue Jays' bats tonight, we wouldn't be surprised if he once again struggled tonight.

We already felt that the Braves hitters would be at a slight disadvantage tonight facing Stroman, but now they will also be without one of their best hitters as Freddie Freeman is likely to miss this matchup due to a hand injury. Meanwhile, the Jays may receive a boost to their hitting lineup tonight as Troy Tulowitski is expected to be activated from the 10-day DL tonight. This is certainly another advantage that we expect Toronto to exploit tonight.

Given the parity in this league, it is certainly rare that a team is able to complete a 4-game sweep against another and while it certainly happens, it is by no means common-place and that is certainly something to consider. The Blue Jays have the advantage in numerous areas for this particular matchup and we believe that will be just enough to give them the victory and avoid the 4-game sweep.

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