May 13, 2017
There is one pick today.
Take San Francisco Giants (-120) on the ML against Cincinnati Reds risking 3.6% to win 3%.
(Moore and Bonilla must start for wager to have action)
These two clubs battled it out for 17 long innings last night before the hosts finally triumphed thanks to a walk-off Buster Posey home run! When teams are engaged in such marathons, usually the one that eventually clinched it has a big edge the following day. That's because such long games take a lot out of each player and exhaust bullpens but while the physical effects are similar for both sides, psychologically, one side (the victor) gets a big mental boost while the other team is often left dejected and deflated and needs some time to recover. The Reds were so close to winning yesterday that they will still be disappointed with how things turned out. In the 15th inning for example, they had the bases loaded and could've wrapped up the night but they failed to capitalize and paid the price.
The Giants have had a poor start to the season and own a miserable 13-24 record! Bruce Bochy's squad, however, should NOT be counted out. It's too early in the season to fully write them off and those that do so might live to regret it. This is a team that finds a way to be competitive and has too many prideful veterans on its side to simply give up. We don't expect them to challenge for the division title this year but we do see them climbing up the standings a bit and earning a more respectable record. Last night's matchup took over 5 hours to complete but ultimately went their way and a game like that might well prove to be a catalyst in putting together a solid run. The fact that they found a way to win it after putting in so much effort, will make for a more cohesive and motivated group moving forward.
Not only does San Francisco have a mental edge in this afternoon's matchup, one that is set for tip-off only 12 hours after the culmination of last night's game, they also own several other advantages. Matt Moore is an established MLB pitcher going back to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays and while it's true that he's struggled to start the season, he's still a crafty southpaw that is hard to stop when he gets going. Lisalverto Bonilla, on the other hand, is set to make what is his first big league start since 2014! He's very much an unproven commidity in the Majors and has not even been impressive in the minor leagues. Consider the fact that Bonilla sports an ugly 5.61 ERA in five Triple-A starts this year and you can see that this is not an earned promotion as much as a team's pitching depth being tested due to injuries and a manager like Bryan Price having to find a temporary fill-in!
We believe Matt Moore is more likely to record a quality start than Bonilla and gives his team a better chance for victory. Not only that, the Reds bullpen is very beat up after yesterday's game as the coaching staff had to utilize 6 of their 8 relievers! Several of the pitchers that took the mound for the visitors yesterday had also worked the previous night and might be unavailable this afternoon. Last but not least, Billy Hamilton has no doubt been the sparkplug for this Reds squad this season and a true bright spot but could be missed today. Hamilton picked up an injury in yesterday's lengthy game and Cincinnati might well exercise caution with their speedy center-fielder! All in all, the hosts have numerous advantages in this spot and should be laying heavier odds. At such short odds, there's definite value in backing the Giants.
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