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May 12, 2017

There is one MLB pick tonight.

Take Kansas City Royals (-105) on the ML against Baltimore Orioles risking 3.15% to win 3%.
(Duffy and Bundy must start for wager to have action)

The Kansas City Royals open up a series tonight as the Baltimore Orioles travel to Kauffman Stadium. The Baltimore Orioles have been impressive as of late, winning 6 of their last 7 games heading into this series. They have twice as many wins as losses and are currently first place in the ultra-competitive AL East. Meanwhile the Kansas City Royals are in last place in their division and just 13-21 on the year. Despite those vastly different statistics, the oddsmakers had opened this game with the Royals as the slight favorites, which we find extremely interesting and believe gives a clear indication of how the oddsmakers feel this game will play out.

The Kansas City Royals are an extremely fundamentally sound team. They are not overly strong in any one area, but they do the little things well enough that allows them to grind out wins. The Royals have just 10 errors defensively on the season, the fewest in the American League. They have committed just one error in their last seven games and a very sound on the defensive side of the field. They rarely make errors and beat themselves.

Danny Duffy will toe the rubber tonight for Kansas City and even though he is having a down year statistically, we don't believe he has pitched as bad as his last couple of starts. After two poor outings, he was able to keep an extremely potent Cleveland Indians' offense in check giving up just 1 run in 6 innings of work. Duffy hasn't always been rewarded when he takes the mound as lack of run support has often plagued the right-hander. He has received just 2.9 runs of support this season but that figure is likely to improve. The Orioles have struggled against Duffy. In seven career appearances (five starts) against Baltimore, Duffy is 2-2 with a 2.37 ERA. The Orioles are a team that thrives on the longball and that could be hard to come by tonight as they are batting just .183 against him since 2011.

The Orioles will counter with Dylan Bundy. Bundy is off to a great start this year and has posted 7 quality starts in a row, however, we don't believe he is as good a pitcher as he has shown thus far. He is due for a regression and we believe that could happen tonight against a Royals offense that recently found its stroke against the Rays.

Even though the Royals look like a far cry from the World Series Champions of a few years ago, this is still a team that can shouldn't be overlooked or counted out. It is way too short in the season to count them out. They are capable of winning more games, especially at Kauffman Stadium and we believe they will show that tonight as they take the series opener from the Orioles.

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