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May 8, 2017

There is one NBA pick tonight.

Take Utah Jazz +9 spread (buy the half point) against Golden State Warriors for 3% of the bankroll.

Sweeping a team 4-0 is hard and fairly rare but what's even more difficult is blowing them out and winning by double-digits! That's what is being asked of the Golden State Warriors in Salt Lake City tonight and we believe it is quite unreasonable. Yes, the Warriors are the better team and will most certainly make their way to the conference finals but that doesn't mean it'll happen tonight. Playing in front of an electric atmosphere, don't be surprised if Utah finds a way to force a Game 5 and avoid being swept. Even if they do get swept, tonight's scoreline is unlikely to be lopsided.

We believe the Jazz are a better team than they've shown thus far in this series and might have a trick or two up their sleeves tonight in what is a must-win game in order to stave off elimination. Quin Snyder's club is one of the very best in the league from a defensive standpoint! The Warriors have far too many weapons offensively to be contained for 4 quarters but if they can be limited for one or two quarters, it'll suddenly prove difficult for the visitors to cover this inflated point-spread.

Derrick Favors played a pivotal role in Game 7 of the Clippers vs. Jazz series to help Utah advance to the next round but ended up hurting his back in that contest. He's been far from 100% since then and has hence been very limited in the first 3 games of this series! The coaching staff limited his minutes in the last few games to avoid aggravating it and with a couple of additional days of rest having come his way, we believe he'll be in better shape tonight. His contributions on the glass and around the rim as well as his mid-range game is key to the Jazz, as they are a mediocre team offensively and far too often rely solely on All-Star Gordon Hayward for buckets. Considering that he logged only six minutes in Game 3 and was held scoreless, we don't see how he could possibly do worse.

Look for Favors and one or two others to step up their game and perform better than they have in the first 3 games of this series. If that is the case, Utah will challenge for the outright win and while we foresee they may end up falling short, we do see a lot of value in them being spotted 9 points! The points are likely to come into play and are worth taking in this situation. The betting public is in love with the superstars of Golden State and will back them, almost no matter how many points they are laying! That is a mistake. Sharp money is on the plucky underdogs in a matchup that could be more tighly contested than many anticipate.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Jazz are 8-4 ATS after a double-digit loss.
  • Jazz are 39-16 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss over the last 3 years!
  • Jazz shot just 39% from the field in Game 3! A factor that is unlikely to repeated in Game 4.

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