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May 7, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take Toronto Raptors +7 spread (buy the half point) against Cleveland Cavaliers for 3% of the bankroll.

With or without Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to surprise people this afternoon. They have been blown out in the first 3 games of this series and at this point, no one is giving them a chance! The betting public is laying the points with the defending champions, Cavaliers, expecting an easy cover. That type of naive thinking rarely leads to profits for the casual bettor. This is a spot where all the value is on the underdogs and the point-spread has been inflated.

Cleveland opened Game 3 as just -2.5 favorites and yet now are being asked to win by at least 7 points. That might not seem like a tall order given their margin of previous victories but we believe it could be. Complacency is a killer in sports and the fact that the Cavs have so easily cruised to not one or two but 3 W's in the first three games of this series will give them a false sense of security. When teams are that 'comfortable', they rarely play at their best. Look for a less than inspired effort from Cleveland tonight which should see them in a dogfight that goes down to the wire.

Toronto, on the other hand, has been disrespected, written off and humiliated! They have nothing to lose now and can play with less pressure as not even their passionate fanbase anticipates a turnaround which would see them win 4 games in a row and head to the Eastern conference finals. We certainly don't, neither. However, we do believe they will play with a chip on their shoulders tonight as this is still a squad made up of prideful veterans. Players like PJ Tucker, Serge Ibaka and All-Star DeMar DeRozan are not about to just lie down and be a doormat. They have not played up to their potential so far and are gonna want to prove a point.

Let's face it, the Raps are not gonna have a miraculous turnaround but they are capable of putting out a good performance in one game and delaying the inevitable. On their home court, at Air Canada Center, where they owned an excellent 28-13 record during the regular season, they are determined to bounce back and save face. They can't afford another humiliating scoreline in front of their fans. Toronto was right in it until the 4th quarter last time out in Game 3 but lost its composure in the final twelve minutes. Coach Casey has no doubt addressed that in the buildup to this game and will have his team believing that they can compete with the Cavaliers. Regardless of which team wins this game, we believe it'll be a tight one that could be decided in the final minute or so. If that is the case, the 7 points are extremely precious and are likely to come into play even if the Raptors do lose and get eliminated. Take the generous points with the home side as they are likely to be the more focused and motivated side in this contest.

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