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May 4, 2017

There is one NBA pick tonight.
 

Take the UNDER 219.5 total points in Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards for 3% of the bankroll.

Fans of offense have certainly been treated throughout the first two games of this series which have seen an average of 241 combined points scored thus far between the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards. Neither defense has been able to slow the other down as both teams are shooting close to 50% from the field, however we don't believe both teams will be able to keep up this torrid pace. Eventually, one team (if not both) will cool off from the field and start producing numbers greater towards their seasonal averages and we believe that could happen tonight as the series now shifts to DC. The Washington Wizards simply cannot afford to allow the Celtics to shoot 51% from the field again tonight, especially on the road. The Wizard have been a strong home team this season playing in the Verizon Center and should come into this contest with the added focus of defending their homecourt.

The second round has been a high scoring series, not only for both Boston and Washington, but last night both games flew over the posted totals. The oddsmakers are now in the precarious position of needing to balance out the outcome on the total. This series opened at 216 combined points and the oddsmakers had upped the total to 217.5 in Game 2. Given the results of that contest, they have once again padded the Over to where it currently sits given that they now realize the betting public will once again be blindly betting and anticipating a high scoring game. This total has been padded an additional couple of points and despite the vast majority of the public, solely betting on the Over, we find it interesting that the total has dropped a full point from where it opened. This reverse line movement is a solid indication of where the books believe this total is going to fall.

Both teams are certainly capable on the offensive side of the ball, however we don't believe we will see another scoring in the 115-120 range tonight. Both teams may in fact crack the century mark in this contest, however, if this game can avoid overtime, we would expect it to be more in the 106-104 range which still falls comfortable Under the posted total. Now that this series and the Over have the full attention of the betting public, we believe this is an ideal opportunity for Vegas to pull the rug out from everyone and bury the public as both defenses finally step up and this game falls just short of the total.




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