Members Only

June 29, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take Atlanta Braves (+104) on the ML against San Diego Padres risking 3% to win 3.12%.
(Garcia and Lamet must start for wager to have action)

Jaime Garcia has been roughed up in his last couple of outings where he has given up exactly 6 earned runs in each. Due to back-to-back poor performances, we believe this is the ideal opportunity to back the veteran to get back on track and now having to go against the leagues (statistically) worst offense, this could be exactly what Garcia needs to snap out of his funk and get back on the winning track. Garcia has pitched well this season; however, his recent performances have certainly inflated his ERA to 4.03 in 87 innings of work. That being said, he has had quite a bit of success against this Padres lineup in his career going 2-1 with an impressive 2.57 ERA in 7 career starts against the Friars.

The Padres will counter with rookie right-hander, Dinelson Lamet. Lamet is coming off a quality start in which he held the Detroit Tigers to three runs (two earned) over 6 innings of work. While he has looked good recently, it is certainly worth noting that even behind some quality performances, he still owns a poor 6.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 30 innings of work. Lamet has also had issues keeping the ball inside the park and has shown a propensity for serving up homers. He has already allowed 8 homeruns through just 6 starts this season! That could be a problem for a Braves offense who has been seeing the ball extremely well recently.

There is no question that the Braves are the more offensively explosive team in this contest. The Padres rank near the bottom of the league in every statistical offensive category, including when playing against left-handed starters. The Padres are just 7-14 this season against southpaws and the Braves already had one southpaw baffle them this series. In Game 1, Sean Newcomb threw an absolute gem, going 6 innings, and giving up 0 earned runs. We wouldn't be surprised if Garcia had a similar showing against this lineup tonight.

Atlanta is averaging a solid 5.3 runs over their last ten games, and we don’t believe the rookie Dinelson Lamet will be able to fully navigate this lineup during this start. He has been shaky at best, conceding a total of 22 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Once the Braves start piling up the hits, we believe Lamet will start to unravel and that should be enough for Atlanta to escape with a series ending victory.

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.