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June 27, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take Atlanta Braves (+111) on the ML against San Diego Padres risking 3% to win 3.33%.
(Newcomb and Chacin must start for wager to have action)

The San Diego Padres are (statistically) the worst offensive team in the Majors, currently averaging a league low 3.61 runs per game, and are hitting a below average .226 as a team. Tonight, they will be facing one of the top prospects in baseball as their lineup will square off against the Braves' Sean Newcomb.

Newcomb will make his fourth start of the season and has looked outstanding thus far. In his previous start, he held the Giants to only one run in six innings, finishing with the no decision. The rookie left-hander is off to a very promising start to his Major League career, recording a Quality Start in each of his three outing this season while allowing only five runs (four earned) in 18.1 innings pitched. That being said, his 0-2 record may be a bit off-putting, however, his results have been mostly due to a lack of run support rather than poor outings on the mound.

Newcomb should have the advantage in this contest, as not only is he a rookie facing the league's worst hitting lineup, but also the fact there is not currently much tape on the southpaw as of yet. The Padres have not only struggled at the plate, but they have severely struggled against left-handed pitching this season as they are just 7-13 on the year. Facing a newcomer who has navigate potent lineups such as the Mets and Marlins thus far in his career with success, he should have little issue navigating through the Padres lineup tonight.

San Diego will counter with Jhoulys Chacin who has been having an outstanding month of June. That being said, he still owns a 4.95 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP to go with a 6-6 record in 83.2 innings logged on the season. We believe this is simply a fortunate stretch for the veteran and his overall seasonal numbers are much more indicative of how he has truly pitched. Chacin has also struggled against the Brave in his career and we wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued tonight. He faced this lineup back in April and proceeded to conceded four runs (three earned) in five innings. He now sits at 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta.

This is a matchup that we believe favors the Braves. Atlanta has turned things around this month and comes into this contest winners in 8 of their last 11 games and has seen their offensive production increase. The Braves are now averaging 4.69 runs per game which ranks them 14th in the Majors and boasts a strong .268 collective batting average. If Newcomb can continue his impressive string of performances tonight, the Braves offense should be able to do enough damage to Chacin to come away with a close-knit victory.

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