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June 24, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take Kansas City Royals (+105) on the ML against Toronto Blue Jays risking 3% to win 3.15%.
(Estrada and Vargas must start for wager to have action)

This is a matchup that has all of the makings of a mismatch on the mound. Marco Estrada is having a rough season and has yet to win a game in the month of June. He was hit hard by the Texas Rangers in his last outing where he gave up 6 runs in just 3.2 innings of work. With that outing, he now owns a 4.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 85 innings pitched. Estrada has given up six runs in back-to-back starts and he owns an awful 12.67 ERA over his last four starts. Given his struggles this month and now culminating with his worst stretch of the season, there is no question that the veteran's confidence is shaken at the moment and against a KC team that is seeing the ball well and is on an impressive hot-streak, we expect another struggling outing this afternoon from Estrada. Kansas City should be able to plate some run in this contest.

Pitching opposite of Estrada will be Jason Vargas. Vargas has been one of the bigger surprised this season and the work that he had done in the offseason tweaking his mechanics has certainly paid off. Vargas will be making his 15th appearance in this contest and will be looking for his 6th consecutive win. Vargas was solid once again in his latest effort, allowing three runs in six innings to the LA Angels, recording the win to bring his record to 10-3. The veteran left-hander has been nearly unbeatable this season and posts a stifling 2.27 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 87.1 innings of work. He has been extremely consistent this season and has only allowed more than three runs once this season. He seems to be locked in on the mound at the moment and we expect another stellar outing from the southpaw in this contest.

Kansas City is still a team that we don't believe fully gets the respect of the oddmakers. They won a World Series based on playing solid fundamental baseball on both sides of the field. They are not reliant on the longball as some teams are and yet they still find ways to win ballgames. That makes the Royals a very dangerous team, especially in Kauffman Stadium. Just like the team themselves, we believe the oddsmakers are also continuing to undervalue the performance of Jason Vargas this season. Vargas has been admirably and hasn't made many mistakes on the mound, yet the oddsmakers still give the impression that they are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Eventually Vargas will have a poor outing, however, the oddsmakers are generously giving us who we believe to be the better pitcher (and better team) at the moment at a deeply discounted price. The Blue Jays are also not a team that has hit left handed pitchers very well this season which will only give Vargas another edge on the mount. The entire Royals team appears locked in and focused at the moment and that makes it incredibly hard to look past them. They are not a team that typically blows other teams out and this game will likely be close, however the Royals will continue to do what they do best and that is find a way to win the game late. The value is on the home team in this contest.

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