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June 23, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take Colorado Rockies (+192) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 5.76%.
(Freeland and Wood must start for wager to have action)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the last month and come into this series opener an extremely impressive 12-1 in their last 13 games. There is no question that the Dodgers are on a roll and that has certainly gotten the attention of the betting public. LA has been nearly a 'sure-thing' at the betting window for their backers and that has undoubtedly grabbed the attention of the oddsmakers. During their winning streak, we have seen the odds on the Dodgers slowly creeping up and tonight’s matchup is one where we expect the house to come crashing down on LA's backers.

The Colorado Rockies continue to be one of the most improved teams from a season ago and one of the few teams in the NL that can stand toe-to-toe with the Dodgers. Their dangerous offense is currently averaging 5.30 runs per game which is good for fourth in the Major Leagues, and features a .275 collective team batting average. An area where the Rockies have severely improved from a season ago, has been with their pitching staff. What is impressive about what the Rockies are doing, is their pitching is comprised of mostly rookies who are all having standout seasons. One of those rookies is Kyle Freeland who will make his 15th start of the season, aiming for his fourth win of the month. Freeland was solid in his previous start, conceding just one run in six innings to the Giants, leading to the win to bring his record to 8-4. The rookie left-hander is having a strong season, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 81.2 innings logged. He has fared well in his two starts against the Dodgers this season, holding them to two runs in ten innings of work. Freeland is not a strikeout pitcher, notching just 50 k’s, however, we believe that could work in his favor tonight as he induces groundballs which could keep the potent Dodgers' bats in check.

The Dodgers will counter with Alex Wood who, up until this point, is having an incredible season, sporting a dazzling 1.90 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 61.2 innings pitched. That being said, we are not completely sold on Wood at this point and believe he is being extremely overvalued given his impressive record. The southpaw is due for a bad outing and has struggled against the Rockies in his career, having gone 3-2 with a 5.59 ERA in 7 career starts. This Rockies lineup has been unforgiving this season and has been the best team in the league away from home this season. Colorado comes into this matchup having lost two straight games after posting another impressive 6 game winning streak in which they were averaging nearly 7 runs per contest. Having put up back-to-back losses and now in a series with the hottest team in baseball will undoubtedly motivate the entire team to get back on the winning track.

Wood will also come into this contest on 6 days’ rest, which may not be to his benefit. Pitchers become accustomed to getting their typical 5 days off after a game and anything more or less than that can severely affect their productiveness on the mound. The last time Wood pitched on more than 5 days’ rest, he lasted only 5.7 innings while giving up 3 earned runs in the process. If he is less than sharp on the mound tonight, that could be the opening that Colorado needs to string together those timely hits and put runs across the plate.

One swing of the bat could be all it takes to turn the tide of this game and both teams have shown the explosiveness to go yard at a moment’s notice. We believe both teams are much more even than the odds suggest as we don't believe either side holds a significant advantage in this contest. Both teams are equally capable of winning this matchup. This game will come down to whatever pitcher makes the most mistakes on the mound and because of that reason, there is a tremendous amount of value backing the road team and we believe they'll find a way to get it done and put an end to the Dodgers impressive win streak tonight.

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