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June 19, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take New York Mets (+270) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 8.10%.
(Wheeler and Kershaw must start for wager to have action)

There is no question that Clayton Kershaw continues to be one of the best pitchers on the planet. He has been the model of consistency yet again this season and there are very few in the league that have a chance to outduel him on the mound. Because of his dominance, he is often tagged with a very hefty price tag and that is once again what we are seeing here in this contest. The Dodgers are also playing extremely well at the moment, having won 9 of their last 10 games. Couple that in with the fact that Kershaw has been nearly flawless in his career against the Mets, and the odds that the oddsmakers have set seems to at least make a bit of sense to the average bettor. That being said, there is simply no way that the Dodger's should be this heavy of a favorite, especially against a lineup that has as much explosiveness as the Mets.

Zack Wheeler will have the unenviable task of pitching opposite of Kershaw, and while many may not give the youngster a chance, we believe he could come out and prove some of the naysayers wrong in this contest. He is coming off his worst start of the season in which he surrendered 8 runs (2 homeruns) in just 1.2 innings against the Cubs, however, prior to that performance he was having a rather promising season allowing just 3 or fewer runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. He has also been fantastic on the road this season, producing a 2.76 ERA in 5 appearances. He certainly has the capability of keeping this a close game, and pitching against the likes of Kershaw, that is all you can really ask of a pitcher.

Kershaw is undoubtedly the better pitcher in this contest, however, this will be the first time that the Dodgers' lineup has seen Wheeler which could give the youngster a strong advantage throughout the first few innings of this contest. Despite the heavy odds, the betting public is still heavily pounding the Dodgers in this contest and looking at the side-by-side statistics, it is easy to see why. That being said, this is simply a matchup that on paper, simply looks a bit 'too easy'. We've always been believers that there are no such things as gifts in the world of sports betting and this is a particular matchup that screams 'upset' to us.

We believe this matchup will be closer than the oddsmakers are predicting and therefore should not carry this heavy of a price tag. If Wheeler can limit the damage on the mound, the Mets could be just one swing of the bat away from 'stealing' a victory in this contest. There is always a certain amount of risk involved when backing this big of an underdog, however, if we are correct with our assumptions and the Mets do manage to pull off the victory, then the reward will have far outweighed the risk. Even if the Mets fall short of the win in the end, there is no question that they are the side that holds all of the value in this contest.

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