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June 11, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take Milwaukee Brewers (+144) on the ML against Arizona Diamondbacks risking 3% to win 4.32%.
(Anderson and Ray must start for wager to have action)

Looking at the odds that the oddmakers have set in this matchup, to the betting public it would give the appearance that the Diamondbacks are more likely to win this matchup and that anyone wanted to bet on them has to pay a heftier than normal price. However, we're unconvinced that is the case.

The Milwaukee Brewers have shown that they are a more than capable offensive team. They are averaging 5 runs per game this season which ranks them 7th in the Majors. They have also been productive at the plate as they own a 2.42 collective team batting average. Offense has never been an issue for this team, but if there was one area where they were vulnerable; it's on the mound. Their pitching has been an Achilles Heel for this team this year, however, there is one pitcher in their rotation that has proven to be capable of posting quality innings and that is Chase Anderson.

Anderson has been nothing short of dominant this season. Not only is he 5-1 on the season with a very respectable 2.94 ERA, but over his last 3 starts, he has been nearly unbeatable. Over Anderson's last 21.7 innings of work, he has allowed just 10 hits, but even more impressively, he has not given up a single run! He also has a combined 22 strikeouts over that span! His streak actually started a couple of weeks ago against this same Arizona team where he went 7 strong innings allowing just a single hit while striking out 11. He has been sensational against the D'Backs in his career, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.00 ERA in 3 career outings. Eventually Anderson will allow a couple of runs, and it could possibly be in this contest, however, he has proven able to keep this offense in check and should do enough to limit damage and keep things close in this contest.

Like his counterpart, Arizona's Robbie Ray has been stellar in his past few outings as well, allowing just a single earned run in his last 22.7 innings. Ray also had success a a couple of weeks ago against this Milwaukee lineup, having tossed 7 innings of shutout baseball back on May 25th. As good as Ray has been this season, Chase Field is a place where he has struggled. His ERA at home this season is an ugly 5.67 through 6 starts this season. It's also important to note that of the 24 earned runs that Ray has given up this season, 21 of them have come inside this ballpark!

Both pitchers have been spectacular as of late, which is why we find it interesting that the oddsmakers would make the D-Backs such hefty favorites. We believe they are over0valuing the home team simply because they are in the confines of Chase Field. Milwaukee has just as much explosiveness in their offense to take the ball yard in this ballpark which makes this an extremely interesting matchup. We believe this game could go either way, however, given how Ray has seemingly struggled at home, we actually give Milwaukee the slight advantage to pull off the win in this contest. These team are much more evenly matched than the odds suggest which places a huge amount of value on the road team in this contest and we believe the underdogs managed to come away with the victory and provide a nice return for their backers.

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