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June 3, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take Milwaukee Brewers (+140) on the ML against Oakland Athletics risking 3% to win 4.2%.
(Garza and Hill must start for wager to have action)

Rich Hill will make his fourth start since missing a month earlier this season. He has a long history of dealing with blister problems on his throwing hand and it has yet to be soon whether he has fully recovered, judging by the number of free passes he has been issuing to batters, we are not completely convinced. If his trouble hitting the strike zone carries into this contest, Hill could be in for a long afternoon, as the Brewers are a team that has the offensive capability to make pitchers pay for their mistakes. They have an extremely potent offense which ranks 4th in the league, averaging more than 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are hitting a collective .255 and rank 7th in the league in homeruns with 74. If Hill is not completely on his game this afternoon, the Brewers' bats will capitalize.

Hill's career numbers against the Brewers are somewhat misleading. Yes, he is 2-1 in 5 starts against Milwaukee, however his overall ERA is a less than impressive 4.40. What that tells us is that Hill has been somewhat fortunate to be receiving a fair amount of run support by his offense, despite pitching less than stellar outings. At some point his mistakes will add up and his offense won't be there to bail him out. Against what could be one of the more potent offenses that Hill has faced this season, we wouldn't be surprised if this afternoon is where his mistakes catch up with him.

Matt Garza will take the mound for the Brewers this afternoon and while there is no question that Garza is not the pitcher that he once was, he is still a veteran presence on the mound. He has struggled in his last couple of outings, but even at that, he is still a much better pitcher than his statistics have shown and is more than capable of outdueling Hill on the mound this afternoon. Garza has faced the Dodgers twice in his career and while he is winless, he has pitched well against their potent lineup. In his most recent contest, he managed to go 6 strong innings, giving up just 5 hits and zero earned runs.

These two teams fought in a close, low scoring battle last night that went to extra innings. The Dodgers managed to tie things up in the top of the 9th with a Yasmani Grandal homerun, and Cody Bellinger put LA up for good with a solo shot in the top of the 12th. It was a tough way for the Brewers to lose, on a couple of mistakes in the latter part of the game, but we expect last night's letdown to only add to their motivation for this contest. The Brewer's bats will be ready and even if Garza isn't on his A-game in this contest, the Brewer's bats should provide enough offense to carry their team to victory and even up the series. The Brewers are being undervalued and provide solid value as the home underdogs in this one.

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