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July 31, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take Detrot Tigers (+215) on the ML against New York Yankees risking 3% to win 6.45%.
(Fulmer and Severino must start for wager to have action)

The oddsmakers have installed the New York Yankees as sizeable favorites in this contest, and while we agree that there are areas where New York does hold some advantage, we don't believe this will be as one-sided of a contest as these odds suggest.

Luis Severino has certainly been impressive over his last couple of starts, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.43 ERA over his last 3 contests, however he hasn't been immune to having an occasional 'poor' outing. Prior to his current three-game streak, Severino went through a stretch where he gave up a combined 20 earned runs over his previous 5 consecutive starts! He's still a young pitcher up and coming pitcher, so to believe that he is considered a 'lock' as of yet would be a mistake, especially against a lineup as potent as the Detroit Tigers. Severino has already experienced firsthand what this batting order can do as he was tagged for 3 earned run on 10 hits in 5 innings of work in his lone career start against Detroit a season ago.

For Detroit, Michael Fulmer has not gotten the praise the Severino has received, but he has been arguably Detroit's best pitcher in the rotation this season. Last season's AL Rookie of the Year is having himself a formidable sophomore season as he comes into this contest 10-8 with a respectable 3.35 ERA and comes into this contest having given up 3 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 8 appearances. Fulmer is likely the one pitcher on this roster that could give Severino a run for his money on the mound at the moment. Like his counterpart, Fulmer has only one appearance against this Yankees lineup, however it was an impressive one having gone 6 innings, giving up zero earned runs and just 2 hits a season ago. Detroit is 10-3 in Fulmer's last 13 starts against the AL East.

Where the Yankees arguably have the biggest advantage will be with their bullpen. The Detroit pen has been atrocious this season, however, if Fulmer can limit the damage and last deep into the game, it could negate what sizable advantage the Yankees have. Also, the Tigers pitching has been impressive in their last two games, having held the league's second most potent offense, the Houston Astros to just 4 runs over their last 18 innings.

The Detroit offense has been in a groove having scored 23 runs in their last 3 contests and after having taken 2 of 3 from Houston, should come into Yankee Stadium with a ton of confidence, looking to build on their recent momentum. Meanwhile, the Yanks had their 6-game winning streak halted by the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday and we wouldn't be surprised if they continued to stumble in this contest tonight.

If Detroit can capitalize on some timely hits or catch Severino keeping the ball up in the zone and turn his mistake into a homerun, it can completely change the course of this game and put Detroit in a position pull off the upset. At these odds, we believe the reward far outweighs the risk and will look for Detroit to find a way to pull off the upset and come away with a nice return for their backers.

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