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July 15, 2017

There is one pick today.

 

Take Colorado Rockies (-105) on the ML against NY Mets risking 3.15% to win 3%.
(Chatwood and Lugo must start for wager to have action)

The NY Mets managed to take Game 1 of the series from the Colorado Rockies last night in the first game back from the All-Star break and managed to do so in a convincing fashion, coming away with a 14-2 victory. While the Rockies were thoroughly handled in that contest, we believe this matchup puts them in a good position to exact their revenge. Last night's performance was certainly not the way the Rockies wanted to start the second half of the season, so after getting that offensive stinker out of the way, they should come into this contest motivated and their bats should be able to find success against Seth Lugo.

Lugo will take the hill for the 7th time this season and was not overly impressive in the first half of the season. He comes into this contest 3-2 with a 4.59 ERA, and 1.47 WHIP. Control has been an issue for him this season as he has issued 11 walks in just 33 innings of work this season and over his last 3 appearances, we have seen him struggle even more as his ERA balloons up to an unimpressive 6.48. He has had just one appearance against the Rockies in his career and it came in the form of relief action. In that contest, Lugo gave up 2 runs and issued a walk in 3 innings. If that is the kind of production that Lugo displayed in a relief setting, the Rockies should be able to have success against him tonight when he is placed in the starting role.

Meanwhile, Tyler Chatwood will take the mound for the Rockies and while he has had somewhat of a mediocre first half, Chatwood has always been a pitcher who has performed better on the road than in the confines of Coors field, and that has not changed this season as he has a respectable 3.19 ERA of 62 innings on the highway. Chatwood has also had an extreme amount of success against the Mets in his career as he is 3-0 with an impressive 1.50 ERA over 5 starts which span 30 innings. He has also showed composure pitching in CitiField as he has posted a 2-0 record with a 0.53 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP over 17 innings in three career starts at this ballpark.

Both of these teams have equal power in their lineups, but we believe the Rockies hold the pitching edge on the mound, both in the form of starters and with their bullpen. The Mets had a favorable matchup last night with Jacob deGrom on the mound and was able to keep the Rockies offense in check, however, without a solid starter on the mound tonight, we believe the Mets pitching woes will be exposed as the Rockies should be able to generate quite a bit of offense throughout. Even if Chatwood struggles and give up a couple of runs, he should be able to outduel Lugo on the mound and allow the Rockies offense to carry the team to victory.




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