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July 6, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take Arizona Diamondbacks (+137) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 4.11%.
(Ray and Hill must start for wager to have action)

The Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves down 4.5 games to the division leading LA Dodgers following their second consecutive loss in their most recent series, however, this series has been extremely close. The Dodgers managed to win 5-4 in the opener and followed that up with a 1-0 victory last night. The D-Backs will be looking to avoid the three-game sweep in this contest and given that they are 5-1 in their last 6 Game 3 of a series, we believe that their added motivation could be a difference maker in this contest.

Robbie Ray will toe the rubber for Arizona tonight and we believe that gives them the edge on the mound in this contest. Ray has been sensational this season as he's gone 6-1 with an impressive 1.81 ERA over his last eight starts. He is also currently ranked third in the NL in strikeouts with 128 in 100 innings pitched this season. Ray has had quite a bit of success pitching against the Dodgers in his career as he is 4-3 with a respectable 3.30 ERA over 10 career starts. Ray gives his team (arguably) their best chance to win as they are 7-1 in his last 8 starts, He has also been nearly flawless on the road this season and comes into this contest with a 4-1 record and 1.32 ERA, 0.923 WHIP in seven appearances on the highway. Arizona is 6-1 when he has started on the road and he has been holding opponents to just a collective .165 batting average against him this season.

The Dodgers will counter with Rich Hill, who has had an up and down season thus far. There is likely no pitcher in the league who has had as many ups and downs this season as Hill. He was highly touted coming into the season and between May and June he was a pitcher who fell out of favor with the betting public. After coming back from the DL, he pitched worse than when he went on, but over his last few starts he has looked like the pitcher that many had expected this season, going 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts. That being said, his overall seasonal numbers should not be overlooked as he has an ERA of 4.00 on the season and has had terrible success against the Diamondbacks in his career. In seven career starts, Hill is just 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA and WHIP of 1.472. His team is just 1-6 overall when he has taken the mound against Arizona. Given so many inconsistencies this season, it would be hard to trust Hill in this situation and we believe these odds are inflated given the recent hot-streak that his team has been on.

Both of these teams are evenly matched and that has been on full display given how close this series has been thus far. The Dodgers have been (somewhat) fortunate to lead this series 2-0 thus far despite having a distinct pitching advantage in both contests with Kershaw and Wood on the mound. We believe the Diamondbacks will be the ones who hold the advantage in this matchup with Ray on the mound and that should be enough to push them over the top and finally allow them to come away with the series ending victory.

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