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July 5, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take New York Mets (-125) on the ML against Washington Nationals risking 3.75% to win 3%.
(deGrom and Roark must start for wager to have action)

The Washington Nationals have owned this series through the first two games, however, this series finale is one that we believe severely favors the NY Mets. Not only will New York have the added motivation of looking to avoid being swept, but they will also have a decisive advantage on the mound tonight as Jacob deGrom will pitch opposite Tanner Roark.

deGrom hit a rough patch last month, however he has rebounded nicely over his last 4 starts posting an ultra-impressive 0.84 ERA over 32 innings. One of those starts was at home against his opponents tonight where he threw eight shutout innings against them in a 5-1 victory. July has historically been a strong month for right-hander as he is 9-3 with a 1.78 ERA in his career. He has also had a fair amount of success against Washington, going 4-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 10 career starts.

While deGrom has been thriving, the same cannot be said for Roark who has struggled mightily over the last month and a half. Despite going 6-6 on the season, his ERA is 5.27 over 17 starts this season including going 0-4 with a 9.53 ERA in his last five starts and 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA in nine starts at home. He has been an extremely hittable pitcher as of late and despite having some solid number against the Mets in his career, we don't believe his struggles will be resolved in a single start, especially against a team that has average more than 5.5 runs per game on the road this season and ranks 4th in the league in homeruns.

As if New York didn't have enough of an advantage on the mound, deGrom will also have the luxury of not having to pitch to Bryce Harper. Harper is a legitimate MVP candidate and arguably one of the best hitters in the league. For his career, he's slashing .375/.483/.583 in 29 career plate appearances against deGrom which makes giving him a day off somewhat of a questionable decision, but one that should certainly benefit the Mets in this contest.

On paper, this game looks like a mismatch and unless Tanner Roark pitches his best game of the season while deGrom has one of his worst, New York should be able to muster enough offense to come away with the victory.

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