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July 3, 2017

There is one pick today. 

Take the UNDER 10 total runs in LA Angels vs. Minnesota Twins for 3% of the bankroll.
(Meyer and Mejia must start for wager to have action)

Successful sports betting often relies on the ability to look past the surface statistics and determine what the actual makeup of a particular matchup entails. In a sport like baseball, where the statistics are overly saturated, that statement couldn't be truer. We believe this matchup is a classic example of that theory and we intend on using that to our advantage tonight.

Looking at the side by side comparison of these two pitchers, you will see that they have a collective 6-7 overall record and combined 8.12 ERA, which gives the overall appearance that both pitchers have struggled this season in giving up runs and that this would lead to a higher than average scoring game. Looking a little more closely you will also see that Angels' pitcher, Alex Meyer has struggled mightily on the road this season, going just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA over 5 starts. Meyer's counterpart, Adalberto Mejia conversely has struggled at home this season, going just 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA in 6 appearances this season. These statistics only strengthen the perception of this being a higher scoring game which is why we believe the oddsmakers have inflated the expected run total. They are expecting that the betting public will not look any further than these somewhat telling statistics and blindly expect a higher scoring game. This is the trap that they set, only we are not buying it.

Yes, both pitchers have seen their fair share of struggles this season, but that is almost to be expected. Recently however, both hurlers have seemingly found their grooves and have thrown some rather impressive outings as of late. Meyer recently silenced the red-hot LA Dodgers' lineup with a 6-inning gem in which he kept LA scoreless. Despite a slight slip up in Boston in which he gave up 5 earned runs, Meyer has been impressive over his last three starts, throwing two scoreless sessions against both Kansas City and the Dodgers. He has also silenced this Minnesota lineup once already this season. Last month he held the Twins to just a single run over 6 innings in his lone career start. With the Twins offense only having that one start against him, we wouldn't be surprised if Meyer was able to have a similar showing once again tonight.

After struggling in his first few starts, Adalberto Mejia has been extremely impressive over his last 3 starts, giving up a total of just 2 earned runs in his last 15.4 innings. He recently shutout both the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox potent lineups on the road in his last two appearances. Navigating those two lineups is no easy task and Mejia made it look nearly effortless. Like his counterpart, Mejia also has one lone start against the Angels in his career and produced nearly similar results, going 6 innings giving up just a single earned run.

Both pitchers have shown their ability to give up runs, however, over their last few starts they have appeared much more comfortable on the mound and it shows in their poise and body language. We wouldn't be surprised if some runs were cored in this contest as we don't fully expect both pitchers to replicate their initial performance against the opposing lineups from a month ago, however, we would be surprised if both had poor showings in this matchup.

This total seems to be based on both pitchers' earlier season performances and relative 'surface statistics' and is not truly indicative of how both of their hurlers have pitched recently. Some runs will likely be scored whether it be from the starters or the bullpens, however, we see this as more of a 5-4 type game in which if we are correct with our assumptions, falls just under the posted total which is where we believe the value lies.

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