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July 2, 2017

There is one pick today. 


Take the UNDER 9.5 total runs in Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks for 3% of the bankroll.
(Marquez and Walker must start for wager to have action)

Chase Field has long been known as a 'hitters park' and like Coors Field, there is often a higher than average total listed for game played in this venue. In this afternoon's matchup, we'll see Rockies' German Marquez and Diamondbacks' Taijuan Walker square off on the mound. Both Marquez and Walker have struggled at time this season and both come into this contest with ERA's of 4.38 and 3.50 respectively and now having to pitch in this hitter friendly park, we're not surprised to see the oddsmakers list the total where it currently sits. That being said, we do believe this total is inflated and plan to use that to our advantage this afternoon.

Despite both pitchers' struggles this season, they actually have solid career numbers against their opposing team. Marquez has an ERA of 3.00 in three career starts against Arizona, while Walker has a similar 3.32 ERA in three career starts against Colorado. Given the explosiveness of each teams' offense, we believe those are fairly impressive statistics. We wouldn't be surprised if both pitchers were able to keep the offenses in check this afternoon.

Perhaps the most telling statistics however and one that may be overlooked by the average bettor is each pitchers' performance during day games this season. Pitching during the day or afternoon is a lot different than pitching at night. During the day, there is a lot of natural light that shines on the field which often times creates various shadows and dark spots on the field. This can have a significant impact on a batters' ability to see the ball accurately, whereas at night, the lights are always positioned stationary and does not change from inning to inning. Pitching during the day almost always favors the pitcher.

Both pitchers have sensational statistics when looking at their production during the day. Marquez has posted a 4-0 record with an impressive 1.30 ERA in five day starts on the year, compared to a 6.75 ERA at night. His five-day starts have averaged just 6.20 runs per game. On the other side, we have Walker, who has a solid 2.30 ERA in three-day starts this season with his games averaging just 5.33 runs per game. There is no question that both offenses are explosive, however we believe this contest will end up being an unlikely pitchers' duel this afternoon. We wouldn't be surprised if some runs were scored, however we see this being more of a 4-3 type game which falls comfortably under the posted total.




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