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January 27, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take VA Commonwealth -5 spread against Dayton for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a big game for the VCU Rams as they have a chance to pull into a tie atop the A10 standings with a victory tonight over the conference leading Dayton Flyers. The Rams managed to bounce back from back-to-back losses with an impressive 90-52 beat down of La Salle in their last outing. It was an all-around impressive team effort, which has been the norm for VCU this season.

Justin Tillman led the team with 16 points on 7 of 10 shooting from the field, falling just 1 rebound shy of a double-double. Leading scorer for the Rams this season, JeQuan Lewis, came 2nd with 15 points on 6 of 8 shooting with 3 triples and a share of the game-high with 5 assists. Samir Doughty also added 15 points of his own while Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed chipped in 13 points ,11 rebounds and a pair of blocks for the double-double. Jordan Burgess scored 10 points with a pair of triples, while Mo Alie-Cox added a pair of blocks himself. As a team, VCU is solid on the offensive end of the ball averaging 75.6 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field.

VCU has been a completely different team on the home floor at Stuart C. Siegel Center this season having gone 3-0 at home in league play and have outscored those foes by 28.3 points per game! While we certainly don't expect this one to be a blowout, the Havoc defense that the Rams employ should cause issues for the Flyers on the offensive end. The stats on both of these teams are fairly even however it cannot be ignored just how well the Rams have played in front of their home fans this season where they are knocking down their shots 50.3% of the time. Meanwhile, Dayton is just 2-4-1 ATS on the road shooting a rather pedestrian 43%. At the end of the day, most college basketball games come down to two things; knocking down shots and getting on the offensive glass. VCU has a huge edge in shooting and has a decent edge in rebounding rate as well.

This game will likely be close in the early going, however we believe VCU is simply a much better team at home and will hold numerous key advantages in this contest. They should be able to make the critical plays at the end of the game to extend their lead and come away with a big time win and cover.

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