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January 25, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Mississippi -1 spread (buy half a point) against Texas A&M for 3% of the bankroll.

The Texas A&M Aggies have really struggled as of late going just 2-5 in league play. Their record should arguably be worse as they were fortunate in their last contest against the Georgia Bulldogs where a clock malfunction benefited them in the final seconds of of their ultimate victory. They are 0-3 in true road games in league play. They have struggled on offense averaging just 61.7 points per game and have allowed 82.0 to opposing offenses on the road game this season. In conference play, they haven't fared much better averaging just 66.1 points per game on offense, while their defense has allowed an unimpressive 72.1.

An area where we feel that the Rebels will have a decisive advantage will be at the charity stripe. They are hitting over 73% from the line. Meanwhile the Aggies are a team that has struggled from the stripe this season and have cost them numerous games already this season. They shoot just a combined 63% from the line. Their inability at the line could certainly be the deciding factor in what the odds makers are expecting to be a closely contested battle.

The Rebels have been strong at home this season, going 8-3 overall and have the momentum of winning their last two games on their side. This is an important matchup for the Rebels to build some momentum before gearing up for the SEC tournament. This will likely be close in the early going, however Ole Miss is simply the better team playing the better basketball and should be able to win at home over the struggling Aggies. Given that any margin of victory will do us just fine, there's great value in backing them at this minimal spread.

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