January 19, 2017
There is one college pick tonight.
Take Southern Mississippi -2 spread against North Texas for 3% of the bankroll.
With a combined overall record of 11-23, this matchup between the North Texas Mean Green and Southern Miss Golden Eagles doesn't exactly scream "barn-burner". In fact, these two are likely the worst in Conference USA, however that does not necessarily mean that this contest does not hold any value. In fact, we believe the opposite is true as we feel there is a tremendous amount of value on the home team.
While the Golden Eagles have been extremely poor on the road this season, going 0-9 in away from home, they have actually played well in the confines of Reed Green Coliseum, where they are 5-3 on the season and have averaged over 7 points more per contest than their seasonal average. They have played the much tougher schedule this season and lead the recent series going 2-1 both SU and ATS over North Texas the past three seasons. The Golden Eagles haven't been listed as the favorites often this season. In fact, this will be just the second time all season long, however they were kind to their backers as the covered the spread. Over the last 3 seasons, Southern Miss has been a home favorite of 3 points or less 4 times and have managed to cover each and every time in this situation. While the odds makers have done it often, it has paid dividends when the Eagles have been listed as favorites at home.
Meanwhile the North Texas Mean Green are a team that is in complete shambles at the moment. They come into this contest having dropped 6 straight games and are winless on the road this season (0-6). Unlike their counterparts, their statistics drop considerably on the road versus their seasonal averages as they score an average of 6 points less on offense while giving up over 7 more points on the defensive side of the ball. While North Texas will eventually win a game on the road this season, we don't believe this will be the one. Especially not against a team who will be just a desperate for a victory.
North Texas could also be without one of their leading scorers in this contest as Deckie Johnson is questionable with a hip injury. A team who has struggled on the road as much as they have certainly can't afford anymore injuries and expect to win games. Even if Johnson plays, he likely won't be at 100% and that will hurt North Texas in the long run. Southern Miss will have the advantage playing at home and that should be the difference in the end. With this spread being as low as it is, if the Golden Eagles managed to pull off the win, the cover should come along with it.
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