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January 15, 2017

There is one pick today.
 

Take Pittsburgh Steelers +3 spread (buy half a point) against KC Chiefs for 3% of the bankroll.

This should be a closely contested battle. Both teams deserve to be here and have fought tooth and nail to get to this point. They are now just one game away from the AFC Championship game. This is a matchup that'll be highly entertaining and will have its fair share of momentum swings. We ultimately see it being a game that can go either way as the sides have their own unique advantages and weather conditions will be far from ideal. In a 50-50 game that can likely go either way, it's wise to side with the points, especially wne getting a full field goal as the 3 points may prove precious and come into play, even if the team from 'Steel City' falls short of the outright win.

Andy Reid deserves a lot of credit and has his Kansas City squad playing with confidence. He's got a balanced offense and an opportunistic defense that creates more turnovers than just about any other. The issue for them however is that they haven't faced a team with as many potent offensive weapons as Pittsburgh has. The issue when facing black and yellow is that defenses have to remain honest. If they focus too much on the best receiver in NFL in Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, whom we believe is the best dual-threat RB in league will burn them. If they stack the box against Bell, then the speedy receivers will be on the end of big plays thanks to Ben Roethlisberger. 'Big Ben' knows how to distribute it around and let's not forget about Eli Rogers, who may end up having a real impact on this game. He's incredibly elusive much like the very well known Antonio Brown but doesn't get the same attention from opposing defenses. He might just find a bit more space than Pittsburgh's other talented playmakers and take advantage of it.

Let's also not forget that while the Chiefs defense has been solid, there has also been an element of luck in their play. Consider the fact that they have had 8 interceptions returned for touchdowns this season! Compare that number with any other NFL team including other solid defenses like the New England Patriots, whom, up until yesterday, had zero pick-6's and you'll see that it is abnormally high. Most teams haven't even had 3 INT's returned the other way for 6 points, and yet Kansas City has already had eight! Marcus Peters, cancer-survivor Eric Berry and company are definitely ball-hawks and have our full respect. However, while intercepting the ball is very much a skill and result of an organized defense, returning it for TD's certainly takes a fair amount of luck! The Chiefs have been burning teams through special teams and scoring with their defense and we believe that may end today. They're going to need to score points the traditional way, with their offense on the field and that may prove more difficult than imagined.

Pittsburgh has a truly balanced offense. A veteran QB that loves big plays down the field but also knows when to throw it short and take full advantage of mismatches. Then you have an offensive line that has been doing a better job recently and running backs that can do damage on the ground. As for the Steelers defense, they are under-rated. Dick LeBeau may no longer be in charge but Keith Butler still has certain elements of the former defensive co-ordinator's schemes active. They're not afraid to blitz the quarterback but also know when to sit back and play it cautiously. Don't be surprised if they look like the more opportunistic defense today. We were originally going to skip this game but with the line having reached +2.5 now and the opportunity to buy half a point to get the key number +3, value has opened up on the capable visitors. Keep in mind that Mike Tomlin's squad has won 6 of 8 games this season when the vegas spread has been short, in the +3 to -3 range! Back the plucky underdogs, now that they are getting 3 potentially precious points.




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