January 14, 2017
There are two college picks today.
Take LSU +3 spread against Alabama for 3% of the bankroll.
The LSU Tigers have certainly stumbled entering conference play as they sit just 1-3 in the SEC having lost 3 of their last 4 games. Defense has been an issue for the Tigers as they have seemingly allowed the teams that they have faced to score at will. That being said, the Tigers have certainly faced some of the top teams in the conference to open up the slate and we believe their matchup with Alabama is just what they need to start to right the ship.
The Crimson Tide most recently had their 4-game winning streak snapped, however they haven't been overly impressive in any of their victories. This is a very poor team that has been somewhat masked due to their lack of quality competition recently. The Tide only have a single player that averages in double-figures (Braxton Key) and they have struggled mightily on the offensive end and average just 62 points per game on the road. While the LSU defense will certainly provide little resistance, we don't be believe even with that, that the Tide will be able to take full advantage of the situation due to their lack of other contributions from the floor.
LSU is well versed on the offensive side of the ball with three players averaging in double-figures. They are 7-2 at home this season and have averaged just over 80 points per game in those contests. Given their struggles entering conference play, there is no question that they will be motivated ahead of this contest to end their losing ways. With this game being played on their home court, we expect the Tigers to be able to dictate the pace of this game and if they can muster and semblance of a defensive effort in this contest, they should be able to come away with the outright victory. The oddsmakers have listed the Tide as the favorites simply due to the lack of defense by LSU but we actually believe the wrong team is favored in this contest. The points likely won't be needed, but we will certainly take the added 3 points as extra cushion.
Take Clemson +3 spread (buy half a point) against Virginia for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup where we believe the perception of these two teams are skewed given their recent results. The Virginia Cavaliers are a team that has been highly ranked in the Top 25 over the past few seasons. They are a team that is built around their hard-nosed defense and that has not changed this season. They are giving up only an average of 52 points per game to their opposition and that has surely stuck in the mind of the betting public. The Cavaliers are also coming off a victory over Wake Forest in which they rallied in the second half to ultimately come away with the 79-62 victory. Their most recent comeback victory is sure to stick in the minds of the betting public ahead of this matchup.
The Clemson Tigers are in the midst of a rut. There is certainly no question about that as they have lost 3 straight games coming into this contest. A mild losing streak is the number one thing that will deter the betting public's perception and after Clemson's 12-point loss to Georgia Tech as 9-point road favorites, it is fairly safe to say that their stock has never been lower this season and we plan to use that to our advantage in this contest.
It's easy to remember what teams have most recently done, however, prior to their victory over Wake Forest, the Virginia Cavaliers has lost two straight games themselves and were actually losing to Wake Forest prior to their impressive run in the second half. While Virginia is still a quality program, they are not nearly as dominating as they have been in years past given the streakiness and inconsistency of their offense. They are a team that can go on dry spells fairly quickly and often. If not for their play on defense, they could potentially be a team ranked near the bottom of the ACC.
Meanwhile, while Clemson is on a 3-game losing streak, this is still the same team who managed to win 9 straight games prior to their skid. Their offense has simply gone cold, but like any quality team, there are ups and downs throughout the season. This is a matchup that we believe they will be extremely motivated for. Not only to break out of their currently slump, but because it is always a motivating factor to have a highly-ranked team come into your home gym. It adds an extra level of motivation for the payers and we expect the fans to be loud and raucous supporting their home team which could rattle the visitors.
It's also important to mention that the Clemson Tiger's football team is having a parade prior to tip-off to celebrate winning the National Title on Monday night. You know that the campus is going to be rocking in support of their alma mater and we expect that energy to transfer over into this basketball game. Clemson is going to want to put on a show and they are more than capable of winning this game outright. Even if they don't, we expect it to be a close, low scoring affair in which the points will prove to have value.
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