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January 12, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take BYU -12 spread (buy half a point) against San Francisco for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a contest that we believe is a complete mismatch. The BYU Cougars have been one of the best teams in the country over the last couple of weeks that very few are talking about. They are one of the more experienced teams in the country with a ton of veteran leadership on the floor and will be facing a talented, but extremely young and inexperienced San Francisco squad.

The BYU Cougars are scoring nearly 84 points per game this season, which is the 2nd most in the West Coast Conference. They also rank second in assists averaging 17.4 per game. As a team, they have been extremely efficient on the floor, connecting on over 46% of their shots from the field. BYU has been nearly unstoppable on their home floor this season, going 9-1 overall and winning their last 4 games in this venue easily by double digits. They are a team that is built around offense and can put points on the board in a hurry and we believe that is going to simply be too much for the Dons to handle in this contest.

San Francisco on the other hand has been awful against the WCC this season having lost 3 straight games and four out of their last 5. Their 4 losses have also come by an average of 13.5 points. The Dons have also not been very successful against the Cougars having lost the last 6 meetings and while they will certainly have the motivational edge here tonight, we don't believe that will be enough to slow the Cougars high tempo offensive attack.

BYU will also have a huge advantage on the glass in this matchup as they own a +9-rebounding advantage over their opponents. BYU doesn't miss a lot of their shots from the field so the fact that they have been much more efficient on the glass will likely lead to second chance opportunities which is something that San Francisco can ill-afford to have happen. San Francisco was absolutely hammered on the glass in their last contest by a much smaller St Mary's group in their last contest and we don't expect that they will have had enough time to shore up all their holes in the rebounding department ahead of this contest and that will hurt them in this contest.

The Cougars have played the tougher schedule, have the better offense and are the better rebounders. This has all the makings of a blowout and we wouldn't be surprised if the Cougars win this won by 20+. Barring the BYU players getting complacent after grabbing a big lead and allowing San Francisco to claw their way back into the game with a potential backdoor cover, the Cougars should win this contest comfortably while covering the spread in the process.

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