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January 11, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Tulsa +5 spread against Memphis for 3% of the bankroll.

We believe that the public perception of these teams has been somewhat skewed given the recent results both have experienced. The Memphis Tigers come into this contest with quite a bit of momentum having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games while even holding a notable win over the Oklahoma Sooners earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes have been less than impressive as of late, having lost 3 of their last 4 including a heartbreaking loss to the Houston Cougars in a game which they led up until the final 12 minutes of play. Tulsa allowed Houston to connect on their final 7 free-throws to ultimately steal a 64-61 victory.

One thing that can be said about Tulsa is that they have been competitive, even in their losses. They have played well at home this season going 5-2 overall and 5-1 ATS. On their own floor this season the Golden Hurricanes are averaging 71 points on 45.4% shooting from the field. Where we believe Tulsa will have the advantage is the fact that they have much more depth than their opponents. Memphis relies heavily on the production of the Lawson brothers and the team's success largely depends on their individual success. Meanwhile, while Tulsa lacks that true 'go-to' player, they have a productive rotation with 6 players averaging at least 6 points per game. Tulsa also has an extremely deep bench and has outscored their opponents bench 25.8 to 16 and has held that edge in 11 of their 14 games. 

Memphis has owned this series as of late having won 3 straight over Tulsa, including two victories a season ago. We find it interesting that the oddsmakers had opened this game up with Memphis being such short favorites despite their recent success in this series as well as how well they have been playing at the moment. The fact that the betting public has now inflated this number even more has opened up value on the home team. Tulsa should be motivated heading into this contest not only to change their recent fortunes in this series, but also atone for their inability to close out the victory in their last contest. If Tulsa can somehow contain the play of Lawson in the post, this should be an extremely competitive game with the Golden Hurricanes potentially being in a position to pull off the outright victory. Even if they happen to fall short, the crowd at the Reynolds Center should inspire the home team enough to at least keep this matchup close and stay within the pointspread.

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