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January 10, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

SPS finished the college football season with the best winning precentage (64%) among verfied handicappers worldwide thanks to an outstanding 41-23 record! Those that stayed the course profited handsomely as their patience was fully rewarded.

Take Vanderbilt +11.5 spread against Kentucky for 3% of the bankroll.

Looking at the side by side comparison of these two teams, there is no question that Kentucky stands out as the overall "better" program. That being said, it would be a mistake to count out the severely underrated Commodores who have shown an ability to rise up and play the Wildcats extremely tough.

Kentucky is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 matchups versus Vanderbilt and just 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 in Nashville. Next to Rupp Arena, Vanderbilt's Memorial Gym is arguably the toughest place for opposing SEC teams to play in given the way that the arena is set up. Kentucky, while a powerhouse has shown their ability to struggle and appear less-than dominant on the road dating back to last season. There is no question that the Vanderbilt faithful will be out in full force tonight and this could be the ideal chance for the Commodores to get the signature win that has been missing from their resume.

The Commodores are also coming off somewhat of a tough loss in their last contest where they blew a 21-point lead in the final 13 minutes of the game to ultimately lose 56-59 at Alabama. That was a tough loss for head coach Bryce Drew to swallow, however we expect the way that they lost that game to actually help the Commodores prepare for this contest with Kentucky. Drew has unquestionably drilled in the mindset of his players the importance to finish plays and not get complacent on the court. This is an extremely potent Vandy offense that has already shown their ability to put points on the board in bunches on their home floor.

The Commodores are 6-1 in Memorial Gym and are averaging 79.4 points per game. A real strength to their offense has been their ability from long range where they have hit a blistering 43.4% of their shots from distance this season. Everyone knows how good Kentucky is in the half court. There are very few teams who will be able to navigate in the lane and beat up Kentucky down low in the post, they are simply too big and too athletic. The blueprint to beat the Wildcats have been laid by teams who can attack from the outside and that is exactly who the Commodores are. Their ability to hit their outside shots and rebound the basketball is going to be key in this contest. Despite their less than flattering overall record, they match up with the Wildcats extremely well and have just enough talent on their roster to hold their own. While they may not get the outright victory in the end, they should be able to do enough to keep this game competitive and stay within this generous pointspread.

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