January 7, 2017
The best value once again comes on the college hardwood today.
Take VA Commonwealth -11 spread (buy half a point) against Massachusetts for 3% of the bankroll.
For our perspective, this matchup between the UMass Minutemen and VCU Rams is a complete mismatch on both ends of the floor. Umass has been horrendous on the defensive side of the ball the last two games, allowing their opponents to score and average of 87.5 points. It seems that has been their mantra however as they have had the luxury of facing some offensively challenged teams in their non-conference slate. When they have been forced to take a step up in competition and square off against teams who are above average offensively, they have been shredded on the defensive end. We believe that is going to happen in this contest.
The VCU Rams have owned the A10 for the better part of a decade and once again appear to be one of the top teams in the conference. Their 'Havoc' defense is one of the most pressured and opportunistic in the country and will likely pose problems for the Minutemen in this contest as The Rams have been holding their opponents to just 66 points per contest. It has been their defense that has also been the catalyst for their offense this season as they are a team that forces turnovers and gets out in transition which has led to the averaging 75 points per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field.
The oddsmakers have listed this matchup with a fairly high total which means that there should be plenty of offense. Given VCU's ability to create turmoil with their defense, it should open up opportunities on the offensive side of the ball for them to grab 'easy' buckets. Umass' defense has been gashed recently and this will be the best offensive team that they have faced since their loss to Ole Miss earlier in the season. They will likely have issues trying to navigate the pressure defense that VCU employs and will have to 'earn' nearly each and every bucket that they get. VCU has a strong home court advantage, having gone 6-1 on their home floor this season, while UMass has struggled on the road. This game may be close in the early going, but the pressure of the VCU defense should do enough to allow them to create separation on the scoreboard and easily win this one by double digits.
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