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February 24, 2017

There is one pick tonight.
 

Take Oregon State +18 spread against California for 3% of the bankroll.

On paper, the matchup between the Oregon State Beavers and California Golden Bears has the appearance of a complete mismatch and it appears that the oddsmakers agree, having instill the home team as a huge 18 point favorites. While it's true that Cal is one of the top teams in the Pac-12 this season and Oregon State is near the bottom, this is a huge amount of point that the Bears are expected to lay and one that we believe they will have a hard time covering.

In their last contest, head coach Cuonza Martin watched on the sidelines as his team squandered an excellent opportunity to boost their tournament resume as they let a 16 point second half lead evaporate against Oregon. Cal had completely outplayed the Ducks in the first half, but couldn't hold on for the victory as Dillon Brooks canned a 3-pointer for the come from behind victory with just 0.2 seconds left. If was an extremely heartbreaking loss for a Cal team who desperately needed that victory. The Golden Bears are now in the midst of a season high 3-game losing streak heading into this contest tonight.

While we believe this matchup should easily be won by Cal, covering this huge number could be problematic. 18 points is quite a bit in a basketball game and just as Cal saw in their most recent contest, a lead can be cut into extremely quickly when a team lets their foot off the gas. One must question how much motivation the Cal players have coming into this contest against a clear overmatched opponent. We don't believe coach Martin is going to want to do anything more than come away with a victory in this contest, he likely will not care whether his team wins by 7 or 17.

This game could get ugly early on, but even if that is indeed the case, Oregon State has shown heart recently and picked up their first conference win of the season with a victory over Utah last Sunday. They followed that up with a poor performance against Stanford in which they were down by as many as 25 at one point, yet somehow managed to cut it to a loss by 13 points. They have some young talent on this roster, namely sophomore center Gilgorije Rakocevic who score a career high 16 points on 7 of 10 shooting from the field against Stanford. Oregon State may not pull the upset in this contest, but we believe they will find a way to stay within this generous spread.




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