February 14, 2017
There is one pick tonight.
Take Wake Forest +4 spread against Clemson for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup between teams currently heading in opposite directions as Wake Forest travels to Littlejohn Coliseum to take on the Clemson Tigers. This is a big-time revenge game for the Demon Deacons as Clemson managed to take the first meeting, 73-68 back on New Year's Eve.
Wake Forest comes in winning 3 or its last four games after dismantling NC State 88-58, in a game where they shot 54% from the floor (48% from three). The Demon Deacons have had very little issue on the offensive side of the ball this season where they rank 9th in adjusted efficiency. Their biggest strength, however, is their ability to convert at the charity stripe as they shoot an impressive 77.2%, which is good for 11th in the nation.
Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers have lost three in a row with their last two being absolute heartbreakers which include a one-point loss against Syracuse at home and a two-point loss at No. 18 Duke. That's how the ACC slate has gone for Clemson this season as they have been defeated by five points or less six times in league play.
Where we believe Wake Forest will have the advantage is from beyond the arc, where they shoot a combined 38.9%. Clemson has been terrible with their perimeter defense, ranking just 217th in the country. They have also been terrible at defensive rebounding, ranking 311th in the country. IF they allow Wake Forest second chance opportunities, that could be a disaster for the Tigers in this matchup.
In their first meeting, turnovers plagued Wake Forest (16) which was ultimately the difference in the ballgame. Their mishandling of the basketball is somewhat surprising since they currently rank 59th in the nation in turnover margin. We believe that was a rare occurrence in their first meeting and something we expect to improve in this rematch.
Given the rather high total that the oddsmakers have set for this contest, we believe their indication is that this will be a much more fast paced, offensive style of game which would clearly favor the visiting Demon Deacons. With revenge on their mind, we expect Wake Forest to walk out of Littlejohn with a victory, however if they should happen to fall short, the points are likely to come into play.
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