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February 6, 2017

There is one college pick tonight.

Take Louisville +7 spread against Virginia for 3% of the bankroll.

The Louisville Cardinals will be looking to prevent a seasonal sweep as they travel to John Paul Jones Arena to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. These two teams met earlier this season at the end of December and it was the Cavaliers who can away with a hard fought, 61-53 road victory and there is no question that the Louisville Cardinals will be looking to repay the favor tonight. by handing the Cavaliers a home loss.

While the Cavaliers seemingly dominated the first meeting, it's important to note that these Louisville Cardinals are a much different team now than they were back then. They have been one of the hottest teams in the nation having won 8 of their last 10 games with their only losses being on the road against a ranked Notre Dame and Florida State team. It's important to note that neither of those losses came by more than what the oddsmakers have listed the spread at for tonight's matchup. The Cardinals have been red-hot over their past three games, averaging 93.7 points per game during the current winning streak. Their matchups haven't even been close as their margins of victory have been of 55 (at Pittsburgh), 25 (vs. North Carolina State), and 23 points (at Boston College).

While the Cardinals have been playing their best basketball of the season as of the late, the Virginia Cavaliers have been playing arguably their worst going 6-4 in their last 10 games which includes losses in two of their last 3. The Cavaliers have been stout on the defensive side of the ball this season, however they have seemingly struggled on the offensive side which has been the cause of a majority of their losses this season. The Cavaliers lost in buzzer-beater fashion to Villanova and most recently allowed a 12 point second half lead evaporate as they lost at home to Syracuse. They will need to have a stellar showing on defense in this contest if they expect to slow down the red-hot Cardinals.

At the end of the day, this is simply not the same dominant Virginia team that we have known from years past. They are still a quality program but have certainly regressed and at times find themselves extremely vulnerable on the offensive side of the ball. The Cavaliers have managed to defeat Louisville 4 out of the last 5 meetings since the Cardinals joined the ACC, however we believe this year Virginia will be at their most vulnerable. The Cavaliers may indeed bounce back in this contest, however we don't believe this game will be a blowout. Louisville certainly has the talent, size, and depth to contend with the Cavaliers in this matchup. It should be a closely contested game throughout with either team able to pull out the victory. Even if Virginia does manage to win this game, we don't believe it will be convincingly which means the points have value and will likely come into play.

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