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December 28, 2017

There is one pick today.

 

Take Washington State +2 spread against Michigan State for 3% of the bankroll.

The most prolific passer in college football history, Luke Faulk, will look to end his college career on a high note as his Washington State Cougars take on Big Ten foe, the Michigan State Spartans in the Holiday Bowl.

It's no secret that Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio is a little upset to be playing in the Holiday Bowl this season and he made that point evident in the media of the last couple of weeks. After beating his in-state rival, Michigan, during the regular season, the Wolverines were invited to a New Year's Six bowl game, while the Spartans were left with the Holiday Bowl. Dantonio took his frustrations out on the Twitter universe as he felt that his team had been slighted. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Spartans come out in this matchup a bit flat since their hearts may not be truly invested in this matchup.

One thing that Sparty does have going for them however, has been their defense. They rank ninth in the nation in yards allowed per game, surrendering 297.4 YPG. They're also 33rd in passing yards allowed (196.1), fifth in rushing yards allowed (101.3), and 24th in points allowed (20.2), but tonight' they will be going up against one of the most prolific offenses that they have seen all season long. Washington State is second in the country in passing yards per contest with 392.3 behind quarterback Luke Falk's 3,593 yards and 30 touchdowns.

While the Cougars are known for their offense, the team's success also is based on its defense as it ranked second in the Pac-12 in total defense, allowing 313.6 yards per game. Junior defensive end Hercules Mata'afa has been named a consensus All-American after leading the conference in tackles for loss (21.5) and sacks (9.5) this season, and the Cougars were No. 1 in the Pac-12 in pass defense, allowing an average of 167.4 yards and just eight scores this season. The Cougars also topped the conference in first downs allowed per game (15.7) and opponents' third-down conversions (24.8 percent), proof that the team is more than just a high-powered passing machine.

The Spartans have often struggled on the offensive side of the ball, and have played in 4 games this season where they failed to reach 20 points in a contest. We don't believe that is going to cut it against this Washington State team. Luke Faulk is going to be looking to put a stamp on his college career and given how well he has played, that could make for a long night for the Spartans defense. We believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup as the Cougars should notch the outright win.




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