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December 23, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Appalachian State +7 spread (buy the half point) against Toledo for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a classic matchup of offense versus defense as the Toledo Rockets take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the Dollar General Bowl this evening.

The Toledo Rockets have no only been the best offensive team in their conference, but they have one of the most potent offensive attacks in the country, ranking in the top 15 in all major categories. They have shown their ability to move the ball down the field under senior QB Logan Woodside, however, as we have seen already this Bowl season, potent offenses have struggled due to the longer than average layoff, and we wouldn't be surprised if that was the case one again tonight.

After struggling on the defensive side of the ball in the early part of the year, the Mountaineers had seemingly found their rhythm in the later part of the season, holding their final 3 opponents to an average of just 10 points per game. As solid as they have been on the defensive side of the ball, their best defense against teams has actually been their offense. They have a run-first style mentality that has certainly paid dividends this season. They have dominated the TOP over their opponents, averaging just over 31 minutes time per game. This could be key tonight against a Toledo team that needs to play in rhythm to be effective.

With their running style, they wear down opposing defenses and that will likely be the case tonight. Toledo is mediocre on the defensive side of the ball which has gone largely unnoticed given the proficiency of their offense. The Mountaineers will look to establish the run early and should be productive on the ground against a Toledo defense giving up over 166 yards per game on the ground to their opponents. The Mountaineers have also generated 6 runs of more than 40 yards this season. If the Rockets are prepared to stop the run, this could be a long night for the Toledo defense.

Toledo has been the more mainstreamed named team this season and the general public has likely heard of this team given their explosive offense. We believe that has somewhat skewed the perception of Appalachian State ahead of this contest. Toledo could be in for somewhat of a letdown as they were anticipating a much more high-profile bowl game, while the Mountaineers should be relishing the chance to knock off a much-hyped program to close their season. We believe the Mountaineers will pull off the upset in this contest, so we will take the free touchdown.

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