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December 5, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take SMU +4 spread against TCU for 3% of the bankroll.

The TCU Horned Frogs may be undefeated on the season, but they have been yet to be tested like they will tonight as they welcome the SMU Mustangs to the Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena.

The Horned Frogs are a team that has been fun to watch in the early going and have an extremely explosive offense with six different players scoring in double-figures this season. Vladimir Brodziansky and Desmond Bane lead the team in scoring, averaging 14.4 and 14.1 points (respectively) per game. Kenrich Williams is the next top scorer at 12.4 points per game and have recorded four consecutive double-doubles. There is no question that this offense can score as they have topped the 80-point mark in 6 of their 8 contests thus far this season, however, they have yet to face a defense as smothering as the Mustangs.

SMU is a hard-nosed and gritty team that makes their bones on the defensive side of the basketball. They come into this contest ranked third in the nation in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 56.3 points per game. They are disruptive on defense and have been forcing teams into an average of 16 turnovers a game and average 6.9 steals per game themselves. They will surely test the mettle of TCU in this contest.

We believe the Mustangs are the more battle tested team heading into this contest. While they may have two losses on the year, both came in tournament play and have come by a combined 5 points. They also hold notable wins over (then) number 2 ranked Arizona and #20 ranked USC most recently. This is a team that knows how to grind out wins and has dominated this series over recent years. The Mustangs have won 5 straight in this series and aim to make it 6 straight tonight.

This should be an entertaining contest between two extremely underrated teams. This is an extremely low total for such a high-powered TCU offense and we believe that speaks volume at who the oddsmakers believe are going to control the pace of this game. If SMU can force TCU to play their style of game, in the half court, it will give them a decisive advantage. At the end of the day, we simply trust the SMU defense, which has been stellar, to continue their high level of play and come up with a critical stop late to secure the victory. This matchup could really go either way, which makes the points valuable.

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