December 4, 2017
There is one pick today.
Take Penn State -5 spread against Wisconsin for 3% of the bankroll.
It was expected that the Wisconsin Badgers would be in the midst of a rebuilding year and would somewhat regress this season, however, few believed it would be as much as they have shown to start the season. The Badgers have now lost five out of their last six games after starting the season with two wins and although they have faced a tough schedule, they looked absolutely terrible in their most recent loss, an 82-55 drubbing on their home court at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Wisconsin were awful on both ends of court in there that contest. The Badgers shot a poor 39% from the field, and their play on defense wasn't much better as they allowed the Buckeyes to shoot a stunning 66% from the floor. While we don't expect another lopsided performance like that for them again tonight, it is clear that this is not the same Wisconsin-type team that we have been used to seeing in years past.
While the Badgers have regressed, it appears that the Penn State Nittany Lions are a team on the rise. They only have two losses on the season, both at the hands of quality programs (NC State & ranked Texas A&M). They have been explosive on the offensive side of the ball this season, averaging 81 points per contest, with 4 players averaging in double figures. Their big improvement this season, however, has been on the defensive side of the ball where they are holding opponents to just 68 points per contest on 42% shooting from the field. This is a team that has a lot of confidence right now and is coming off an impressive road with in their conference opener. In their 77-73 road win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, the Nittany Lions shot 44% from the field which included an impressive 12 for 23 effort from three-point range.
While we don't expect Penn State to have the same kind of success from three-point range again tonight, it is incredibly hard to trust a Wisconsin team that just lost by 25 points on their home floor while allowing their opponents to shooting 66%. While they will likely clean some of that up in this contest, it doesn't bode well against a balanced and potent Penn State offense. The Nittany Lions also have the added motivation of this being a revenge matchup from a season ago. Last year Wisconsin embarrassed Penn St, coming away with an 82-55 victory. You can bet that Penn State players would like nothing more than to return the favor tonight. Against a depleted and vulnerable Wisconsin team, we believe the Nittany Lions will get their revenge. Wisconsin simply does not have the playmakers outside of Happ and that will make it difficult to keep up on the scoreboard, especially on the road. The value is on Penn State tonight.
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