December 2, 2017
There are three picks tonight.
#1: Take Auburn +2 spread (buy the half point) against Georgia for 3% of the bankroll.
While this matchup is for the SEC Championship, there could be even more on the line for both of these teams as the winner will likely secure themselves a spot in the college football playoffs next month. These two teams met just a few weeks ago and it was the Auburn Tigers who put on an impressive display, completely shutting down what had been an unstoppable Bulldog offense and held their vaunted rushing attack to just 47 yards on the ground. It truly was an impressive performance by Auburn and there is no question that the Bulldogs will be out for revenge in this rematch.
We certainly don't expect this game to play out as the first one did. Auburn came away with a blowout victory and we do expect this game to be much closer. Kirby Smart is a great coach and will have modified his approach to this rematch and will look to do different things on offense, especially with QB Jake Fromm. That being said, there is no hotter team in the country right now than the Auburn Tigers. Auburn has been steamrolling the competition as of late and arguably has the most impressive resume in the country. Their defense is arguably the best in the SEC and they just managed to not only defeat, but handily defeat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl. They are not a team that is simply going to roll over and allow the Bulldogs to exact their revenge.
These two teams match up extremely well. Both have strong rushing attacks, both play incredibly sound defense, but the difference between these two teams lies with the quarterbacks. Georgia QB Jake Fromm has played admirably under center, however, his counterpart, Jarrett Stidham, has been a game changer. Stidham adds another wrinkle into what had already been a rather potent offense. His ability, not only in the pocket, but also with his legs is going to be the difference in this game. In their first meeting Stidham was able to dissect the aggressive Bulldogs defense with short passes and screens, we believe Kirby Smart will have his team on high alert and look to take away the quick pass game. In doing that, that is going to allow more passing lanes to open up downfield and we wouldn't be surprised to see Auburn attempt more deep shots in this contest.
While Georgia will make this a competitive game, looking at the entire body of work of both these teams, we believe Auburn is simply the better team. Georgia will have an advantage with this game being played in Atlanta, however, it won't be enough as Auburn finds a way to beat the Bulldogs again and punches their tickets to the CFP.
#2: Take Ohio State - 4 spread against Wisconsin for 3% of the bankroll.
The Wisconsin Badgers are a trendy underdog pick today. They are undefeated on the season and many have already claimed that they are the uncrowned champions of the Big 10. This is a team that has been undervalued this season, however, the fact that they are an underdog in this contest, despite being undefeated, should speak volumes on how this game is to play out.
A big reason why Wisconsin has flown somewhat under the radar and has not been getting the amount of praise that typically comes with being an undefeated team is simply because the Badgers have not played a tough schedule. Thus far on the season, Wisconsin has failed to record a win over a Top 50 team. This matchup with the Buckeyes will be an extreme step up in competition and will be a deciding factor on exactly how good this Badgers team truly is. The Buckeyes are an extremely balanced team and the only one in the country that has average at least 250 yards on the ground and 250 yards through the air this season. This will be a true test of the Badgers defense as they have not seen an offense as balanced or potent as they will in this matchup.
The Buckeyes, despite having 2 losses on the season could make things extremely difficult for the CFP committee, should they come away with a victory in this contest. Th playoff committee openly claimed that they made a mistake last season by not allowing Penn State, the winner of the Big 10 title, to enter the playoff mix. If Ohio State manages to win the Big 10 title this season, it will be difficult for the committee to overlook that, despite their 2 losses.
Our opinion is that Ohio State is the better team and they have the motivational edge in this contest. They still have an outside shot of making the CFP, however they will need to not only win this game, but win convincingly and impressively. We believe they will do just that. They will hand Wisconsin their first loss of the season and we believe they will do it in rather convincing fashion, by double-digits.
#3: Take Miami +10.5 spread against Clemson for 3% for the bankroll.
After their somewhat surprising loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers last week, a lot of people have been starting to write off this Miami Hurricane team. Yes, Miami has been somewhat fortunate in games this season, however, we believe that is based more on the skill of the team, rather than just blind luck. They were caught looking ahead to this game by Pittsburgh, but we expect that Clemson will have their full focus tonight.
The Clemson Tigers are once again the trendy pick to repeat as National Champions this season. They are ranked #1 in the country, are incredibly balanced on both offense and defense and have been winning comfortably since their lone season loss at Syracuse. The betting public is absolutely loving Clemson and we believe that could be their downfall in this matchup.
Miami is a sneaky team. They are balanced on offense and have an opportunistic defense. They have thrived on turnovers this season and will likely need to win the turnovers battle in this contest if they want to have any chance at knocking off Clemson. That being said, people have been counting out Miami all season and all they have done (other than last week) has impressed. We wouldn't be surprised to see them have another one of those impressive performances tonight and put a real scare into the Tigers.
Clemson is undoubtedly the better overall team in this matchup, however, that doesn't mean that Miami isn't going to make this a game. With a couple of fortunate breaks or untimely turnovers, the Hurricanes are more than capable of stealing the ACC Title. That being said, Clemson has been a cool, calm, and composed team all season long and when the game has been on the line, they have risen to the occasion, time and time again. We believe that will be the case again tonight. Miami will have their share of success, but Clemson comes up with a play or two to put this game away and secure the win. While Clemson likely wins, it will be by a narrow margin and the points are likely to come into play.
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