August 31, 2017
There is one College Football pick today.
Take Oklahoma State -17 spread (buy the half point) against Tulsa for 3% of the bankroll.
It’s almost a guarantee that there’s going to be a ton of points in this game with the oddsmakers having listed the Over / Under at over 70 points. That being said, we don't believe the scoring is going to be split evenly in this contest as this is quite the mismatch heading into Week 1.
Tulsa is coming off quite an impressive 2016 campaign and were one of the more potent offenses in the country, averaging 42.5 points per game on the season. That likely won't be the case this season as the Golden Hurricanes lost a ton of talent from a season ago, including star quarterback, Dane Evans. At the moment, Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery has yet to name his Week 1 starter and the expectation is that he will go with a two-quarterback set with both Chad President and Luke Skipper being in line for in-game reps. The fact that Skipper has only attempted 5 passes at the collegiate level and Skipper has zero, makes it incredibly difficult to expect any kind of continuity or chemistry through the air, at least in the early part of the season.
The Golden Hurricanes do have somewhat of a redeeming quality on offense however as D'Angelo Brewer will be back in the backfield. Brewer rushed for 1425 yards and 7 TDs a season ago. As dynamic he is in the backfield, without a clear cut #1 under center, it is asking a lot of him to completely carry the offense, especially against an offense which is projected to be one of the best in the country. We have seen that the two-quarterback set is not typically a recipe for success and we believe it will hurt Tulsa in this contest.
While Tulsa has some question marks surrounding them, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have high hopes on the season which is centered around their explosive offense. The Pokes averaged close to 40 points per game a season ago and could eclipse that mark this season as they are expected to have one of the most potent offenses in the country this season. Quarterback Mason Rudolph (4,091 yards, 28 TDs, 4 INTs) is back for his senior season with a number of tools around him, most importantly his top receivers in James Washington and Jalen McCleskey. Justice Hill (1,142 yards, 6 TDs) also returns in the backfield so the weapons will certainly be there and will be tough for opposing teams to keep up on the scoreboard.
The Golden Hurricanes are also not a team that has been known for their defensive efforts. A season ago, they allowed an average of 29.8 points per game and their lack of defense was masked by their high-scoring offense. We don't believe that will be the case this season. Tulsa lost several key components to their defense from a season ago and they will have a tall task in slowing down such a high-powered offense.
With this being the first game of the year, there are always question marks surrounding teams, especially in the early part of the season where chemistry is still being formed. The fact that wide receiver James Washington is also probable from this contest has kept this line somewhat in check. This is a rather large spread to expect a team to cover in Week 1, especially against a non-conference opponent, however, Oklahoma State knows what can happen when underestimates a non-conference team as their last second defeat at the hands of Central Michigan a season ago is testament to that. The Pokes will be on high alert not to overlook or let a 'lesser' opponent surprise them this season. In our opinion, this game is a complete mismatch on the offensive side of the ball and Oklahoma State should be able to name their score and win by any margin they see fit. The Cowboys should be able to gain a big lead in this contest and as long as they don't get complacent in the second half and allow Tulsa to score on a 'lazy' defense to narrow the gap, the Pokes should win this contest by 3+ TDs.
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