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August 15, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take Pittsburgh Pirates (+112) on the ML against Milwaukee Brewers risking 3% to win 3.36%.
(Nova and Davies must start for wager to have action)

Despite currently being two games under the .500 mark on the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates still find themselves right in the thick of the playoff race given the recent struggles of both the Chicago Cubs and their opponents tonight, the Milwaukee Brewers. With no one currently running away with the division, the Pirates find themselves just 4.5 games out of first place and a strong series here, could move them into a solid position to potentially move atop the divisional rankings.

In this series opener, the Pirates will turn to Ivan Nova, who has been (arguably) their most consistent starter this season. He is 10-9 on the season but posts a respectable 3.87 ERA through 23 starts on the year. While his overall record doesn't seem overly impressive, the fact that he has an ERA under 4.00 shows that his struggles have had more to do with lack of run support rather than how he has performed on the mound. Nova has historically pitched well in the month of August and has a 17-7 record through 30 career starts in this month. He has also had success against Milwaukee in his career having gone, 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three career starts.

The Brewers will counter with Zach Davies. Davies has pitched admirably this season and comes into this contest with a 13-6 overall record and 4.40 ERA. What is interesting about Davies however, is the fact that he has pitched much better on the road this season than he has at home. At Miller Park, Davies has posted an inflated 6.44 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 12 appearances while on the road, he has posted an impressive 2.52 ERA. Davies has also struggled against the Pirates in his career are he is just 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA in 7 career starts against Pittsburgh. We wouldn't be surprised if his struggles at home against this opponent continue tonight.

This is the ideal opportunity for the Pirates to gain a leg up on the division as they have the better pitcher on the mound and have gone an impressive 9-3 in their last 12 against divisional opponents. This may be a close game, but Pittsburgh finds a way to pull it out in the end.

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