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August 12, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take Philadelphia Phillies (-131) on the ML against New York Mets risking 3.93% to win 3%.
(Nola and Matz must start for wager to have action)

The New York Mets have had the advantage in the first two games of their series with the Philadelphia Phillies, however, this is the matchup where we believe the advantage shifts. The Mets have managed to win the first two games of this series, coming away with a convincing 10-0 victory in Game 1. Game 2 was much closer as New York needed a late homerun in the top of the 9th inning last night to come away with the 6-5 victory. New York has had the advantage on the mound in both of those contests, but that won't be the case tonight as Steven Matz takes on Aaron Nola.

Matz will take the mound for the12th time of the season and has not won a game since June! He was hit-hard by the Dodgers in his previous start, conceding five runs in 5.1 innings, and was charged with the loss. The left-hander has been unable to get in a groove this season, posting a poor 5.77 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP to go with a 2-5 record in his 57.2 innings of work. His most recent outings have been especially disastrous, as he has recorded an abysmal 11.03 ERA through his last six starts, and has yet to log more than 5.1 inning during that span. While Matz won't continue to have these types of performances each and every time he takes the mound, we find it hard to believe that he will be able to completely turn things around in a moment’s notice and should continue to be a hittable pitcher, which will favor a Phillies lineup who has been seeing the ball much better as of late.

The Phillies will send out what has been one of their few bright spots this season in Aaron Nola. Nola has had a breakout season this year and gives his team (arguably) their best chance to win each time he takes the mound. Nola was outstanding in his previous outing, limiting the tough Rockies lineup to just two runs in seven innings and finished with the no decision in a 3-2 Phillies win. The right-hander has been terrific through his last nine starts, all Quality ones, and now features an 8-7 record with a solid 3.12 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 112.1 innings of work.

The Phillies gave away the game late last night against the Mets, but played extremely tough through the first 8 innings and even had a 3 run lead in the 1st. Given how Matz has struggled this season, the Philadelphia offense should be able to generate some runs. Even if Nola somewhat struggles in this contest, he should be able to outduel his counterpart which should be enough to give his team a victory.

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