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AprilĀ 30, 2017

There is one NBA pick today.   

Take LA Clippers -3 spread (buy the half point) against Utah Jazz for 3% of the bankroll.

It's all come down to this; a winner-take-all Game 7 that'll decide which of these two franchises will advance to the second round and face the Golden State Warriors! The Jazz blew a golden opportunity to wrap up the series on their home-court back on Friday and we believe it'll come back to haunt them. That's because while they did win Game 5 at Staples Center, repeating that feat will be very difficult today.

Blake Griffin had just gone down with a season-ending toe injury as Los Angeles was preparing to host Game 5 back on Tuesday. There was uncertainty surrounding their offensive sets and questions being asked of their vulnerability after Griffin's injury last season had prompted a first-round exit at the hands of Portland Trail Blazers. Chris Paul and company have responded and showed that they are not ready to go home yet and while they will be up against it against the Warriors in the second round, should they make it there, this series is theirs for the taking. All the momentum is on their side now as is a passionate fan-base that is starved for post-season success.

The Jazz, other than a few veteran additions in the off-season, are very much a young team and young teams tend to play a lot better at home than on the road. That fact is evident in the disparity between their home and away records. They finished the regular season with an impressive 29-12 record at Vivint Smart Home Arena but were a mediocre squad on their travels, finishing with a slightly above average 22-19 mark! Now they have it all to do on the road, in a hostile environment, in what is a win-or-go-home game against the more experienced Clippers and we believe they'll struggle to rise to the challenge.

Utah will have a good quarter or two tonight but ultimately when the game is on the line and it comes down to which set of players will make those clutch shots that swing momentum, they're likely to falter. Doc Rivers' Clippers are packed full of veterans with proven high-pressure pedigree! Whether it be CP3, Paul Pierce, Jamal Crawford or the likes of JJ Redick, LA has the shooters to nail down key 3-pointers and close the door on the Jazz. Quin Snyder's club has learned a lot this year as a team and made the playoffs after quite a few years of rebuilding. We believe they may come back even better next season but as far as advancing in this year's NBA Playoffs go, they blew their chance when they couldn't get the job done at home in Game 6! We believe the Clippers will advance and cover this short spread in the process while this series will serve as an important 'learning lesson' for an up-and-coming Utah squad that has a lot of potential.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Utah Jazz are just 3-9 ATS after an upset loss as a favorite!
  • Utah Jazz are 9-16 ATS this season as an underdog even though they were often spotted more than 3 points!
  • LA Clippers have won 7 of 9 games this season after an upset win as an underdog!

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