April 1, 2017
There is one pick today.
Take North Carolina -4 spread (buy the half point) against Oregon for 3% of the bankroll.
The Oregon Ducks have looked fantastic this tournament and are coming off a huge win over a Kansas Jayhawks team that many believed were the very best team in the tournament. Not only did they defeat the Jayhawks, they made it look easy. After that performance, we wouldn't be surprised to see a number of people jump onboard the Oregon bandwagon, however we believe they're magical run comes to an end in this contest tonight.
Since the injury to Ducks' big-man, Chris Boucher, Oregon has evolved their lineup to play a much smaller style of basketball. Their changes in game plan have worked nearly perfectly thus far and they have managed to get by without much size and have yet to really feel the loss of Boucher in the rotation. Boucher was the team’s leading rebounder and up until this point, the Ducks have not truly felt his loss in the rotation. We believe that changes tonight. North Carolina is an extremely big and athletic team. They are physical on the inside and is the best rebounding team in the country. The smaller lineup that Oregon has become accustomed to playing with is a bad matchup for the size UNC bring into this matchup.
The Final 4 is a big stage for teams to play on and it will be interesting to see how Oregon performance. The Ducks have not been to the Final 4 since 1939, while the Tar Heels are starting to become regulars at this point in the tournament. Under the bright lights, the pressure can mount quickly, especially when teams get behind on the scoreboard. The Tar Heels experience at playing in these high-profile games will give them a decisive advantage in this contest. We believe they are the better overall team and will hold a decisive advantage with their interior. Oregon’s best bet to keep this game close is to continue to hit their shots from the outside, however, settling for jump shots against the Tar Heels is a dangerous proposition. If the Ducks shots are falling, they should have the ability to keep things competitive, however given how efficient the Tar Heels offense is, if the Ducks’ shots aren’t falling, it’s going to be nearly impossible to keep pace on the scoreboard. Ever since Kris Jenkins' buzzer beating three in the National Championship game a season ago, the Tar Heels have been on a mission. We believe they'll get back to the title game with a solid overall team performance as they go on to grab the win and cover.
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