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September 26, 2016

There is one MLB pick tonight.

Take Arizona Diamondbacks (+161) on the ML against Washington Nationals risking 3% to win 4.83%.
(Bradley and Roark must start for wager to have action)

The generous odds may not indicate it but this is a 50-50 game that can go either way and that means there is huge value on the underdog tonight! The Nats are undoubtedly the better overall team but on this particular night, they have several important factors going against them including a couple of decisive ones that should give Arizona the edge.

Dusty Baker's Nationals return home after a lengthy road trip and it is no secret that, that first game is often the toughest as players have been away from their families and day-to-day matters that need to be attended to, for awhile. Teams are often a bit more 'distracted' and in a flat spot in that initial home game after an extensive time away on the road and that could well be the case tonight. That may be especially true for a Washington team that has already won its division and has little else to play for. Going forward, their focus is on staying healthy for the post-season and avoiding injuries. They have no chance of catching the Cubs for the top seed in the National League and they already know they'll be playing the Dodgers come October 7th. They currently have a good lead over them for home field advantage and are all in all, more or less simply going through the motions right now. The fact that they're going up against a team with an atrocious record tonight means there could also be an unhealthy amount of complacency. They may false believe that simply showing up will be good enough to record a 'W' but that's rarely the case at this level.

The Snakes won't be making the playoffs as they envisioned in Spring Training but they do still have some quality players that can make the Nats pay if they take them for granted. On this occasion, they actually might have the better squad on the field as Nationals will be without their best 2 players, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. The two talented lefties are not in the starting lineup as Dusty Baker gives them time off to make sure they are healthy for when the games really matter, in the post-season. No one will be happer than Archie Bradley to hear that news given that Murphy and Harper have both hit him hard in the past! Their absence gives the Diamondbacks an edge and suddenly makes this a much more winnable game. Keep in mind that this is the last road series of the year for Arizona and Chip Hale's squad will not wanna be swept! Given that they're going up against Max Scherzer tomorrow, this might just be their best chance to catch the Nats off-guard.

Another important issue for the Nationals tonight is the bullpen. Eight different relievers were called upon yesterday against the Pirates! To make matters worse, the previous day wasn't much easier on the 'pen as Washington needed 5 different pitchers to record the 27 outs in Pittsburgh! To say the relievers have had a lot to do recently would be an understatement. For that reason, some will not be available to pitch tonight while others may get in the game but could be suffering from tired arms. It wouldn't surprise us if the D-backs scored a couple runs off Washington pitchers after Tanner Roark leaves the game. Roark has had an excellent season but he's not unhittable and we don't expect him to throw a complete game. Even if he records a quality start, that leaves the vulnerable Nats bullpen a few innings to pitch and that's when the 'Zona bats may come alive. Washington won its final two games in Pittsburgh but given that their starters in those two matchups lasted less than 3 innings means those victories came at a price. We believe all of the above mentioned factors give the Diamondbacks a much better chance of causing an upset tonight than the average MLB fan realizes. At these attractive odds, there's great value betting on the big underdogs.

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