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September 13, 2016

There is one MLB pick tonight.

In addition, an early college football pick has also been released for Saturday!
 

Take San Francisco Giants (-150) on the ML against San Diego Padres risking 4.5% to win 3%.
(Suarez and Richard must start for wager to have action)

The Giants were shutout yesterday in the series opener of this NL West matchup but should have a much better chance of mounting some offense tonight. Bruce Bochy and his club should not be underestimated. After everything they have achieved over the last 7 years, it's clear that this is a team with a 'winning culture' and one that knows how to edge close ball games. They've found different ways to make it to the World Series every other year, for each of the last 6 seasons and it wouldn't surprise us if they once again contended this year! Everyone is writing them off right now due to their terrible form since after the All-Star break but this is a veteran and ambitious roster that is still very much in the hunt.

They are not only in a tight race with the likes of Mets, Cardinals and Marlins for a Wild Card spot but are still only 4 games behind the Dodgers and have enough time to catch up to them and win the division! Nonetheless, they need 'W's right about now and we believe their loss yesterday will serve as a wake-up call. They were fresh off a successful series in Arizona where they had swept the Diamondbacks! In what was their first game back home after a road trip, they were always in a 'let-down' spot. Tonight, we believe they won't look past San Diego, a team that has now beaten them 4 times in a row! Look for the big crowd at AT&T Park to give Buster Posey and company an added advantage.

Clayton Richard has been excellent since joining the Friars about a month ago but what's lost in the narrative is just how lucky he's been over his last few starts. The fact that he's stranded 95% of the batters that have reached base against him shows how absurd that is! That is highly unlikely to continue and it is only anomalies like that which have given him a temporary 1.15 ERA as a starter for San Diego! His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) which is a much more accurate representation of how well he's pitched, sits at a solid but not sparkling 3.56 runs. We expect veterans like Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan to give him some trouble tonight and find a way to manufacture runs.

Even if Clayton Richard does record another quality start, the bullpen can't be trusted to hang onto the lead in this spot. That's because two of their best relievers, closer Brandon Maurer and left-handed specialist Brad Hand have both been used on 4 consecutive nights! It is therefore highly unlikely that they'll be available tonight. Not only that, two of their other frequently-used relief pitchers, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Morrow have also pitched in each of the last two nights. While we wouldn't be surprised to see Andy Green call in Buchter or Morrow, in place of Hand, Maurer and what used to be Fernando Rodney's closer spot before he got traded, their arms aren't fresh and they are more prone to blowing a save than usual. One way or another, we believe the Giants will get to San Diego pitching tonight, even if it comes in the latter innings after Richard exits the game.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Giants are 51-33 against teams with a losing record.
  • Padres have won only 4 of their last 20 road games after allowing 3 runs or less in three straight contests!
  • Giants are 71-50 in recent years after two consecutive games without a stolen base!



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