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September 12, 2016

The best value comes from the baseball diamond tonight.

Take Miami Marlins (+104) on the ML against Atlanta Braves risking 3% to win 3.12%.

The Marlins will be in confident mood after winning a series against Don Mattingly's former club, LA Dodgers, but they certainly won't be complacent, given where they are in the standings. Miami is 5 games behind the second Wild Card spot and if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they can't afford to fall any further behind! This is exactly the type of matchup they should be winning and we believe they have a good chance of doing so tonight.

Atlanta has the worst record in the National League! And there are already some signs that some are looking ahead to next year and simply going through the motions right about now. That is in stark contrast to the Marlins, a team that is still hopeful of making it to the post-season and is focused on the present, as opposed to the future. Not only are the Fish the better team, they are the more motivated bunch right now and that gives them an important edge.

This is a 'false favorite' situation because we believe the underdog (Miami) should have been installed as favorites. The Braves are only slight favorites because this is a home game for them. And yet Turner Field has hardly provided them with much 'home field' advantage this season. They are an ugly 23-46 at this ballpark, meaning they have lost twice as many games there as they have won! And in what will be the final season there, the stadium is hardly packed these days even on the weekends, let alone on a weekday.

Andrew Cashner and Mike Foltynewicz are set to take the hill and while both throw very hard, it may not necessarily be the starting pitching matchup that decides this contest. The Marlins got a great performance from yesterday's starting pitcher, Urena, which meant closer AJ Ramos was the only relief pitcher used and even he was needed for only 1 out! Urena went 8 2/3 innings and came just one out shy of a complete game! That gave the Miami bullpen a day off to rest their arms and we believe that should pay dividends tonight. Because the Braves had the exact opposite situation when Williams Perez, their starter on Sunday lasted less than 3 innings!

Cashner is coming off one of his better outings in the Miami uniform when he silenced another NL East team, Phillies, on his way to an 11 strike-out performance and victory! But whether he outduels Foltynewicz tonight or not, we believe Miami will find a way to win this game. It may come through their superior set of relievers or thanks to their big bats but one way or another, they should open this series with a 'W' and stay in the Wild Card race.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Marlins rank 2nd in the National League with a .266 batting average!
  • Braves are 10-28 after a blowout loss (by 6 or more runs) in recent years!
  • Marlins are 16-8 as as road underdog of +100 to +125 this season!

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