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September 9, 2016

There is one MLB pick tonight.

In addition, 3 college football selections have already been released for Saturday!

 

Take Miami Marlins (+126) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 3.78%.
(Fernandez and Kershaw must start for wager to have action)

This is a matchup of aces, except one is in a big bounce-back spot due to coming off a poor outing (Jose Fernandez) while the other might just be a bit rusty after spending over 2 months on the disabled list. Clayton Kershaw is undoubtedly an elite pitcher but he's been out since June 26th with a herniated disc and it'll likely take him a couple of starts before he regains his form and get back to his dominant self. In the meanwhile, he's likely to be less sharp than he normally is and that presents a unique opportunity for the post-season hopeful Marlins.

Few know Kershaw and his tendencies better than Don Mattingly. The former Dodgers manager helped turn a relatively raw talent into one of the league's very best and has seen him come a long way. He's already instilled a winning mentality into his new club (Miami) since arriving in the off-season and if anyone knows Kershaw's weaknesses, it is him. Current Dodgers manager, Dave Roberts, admitted that his lefty would be on a pitch count and monitored. The Dodgers are just glad to have Kershaw back in time for the stretch run of the season but won't want to push him too much in what is his first competitive start in some time. Look for them to try to get what they can out of him before handing the ball over to a bullpen that has been up and down this year.

Jose Fernandez has an incredibly dominant record at Marlins Park since his debut a few years ago and has been impressive there this season as well. He's 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA at home this season! The fact that the fiery Cuban is coming off a rare poor outing has him undervalued in this spot. Those looking at his last start will draw false conclusions. He's one of the best pitchers in the National League and has a point to prove tonight, going up against a big name like Kershaw. Unlike the southpaw however, he won't be rusty. We expect a determined effort from Fernandez as he helps his team gain ground in the Wild Card race. The Fish have some players with good previous numbers against Kershaw such as Christian Yelich, Martin Prado and former Dodger, Dee Gordon and we expect him to mount enough offense to win a close one. We don't expect Kershaw to be at his best tonight in what is his first MLB start in over 2 months but even if he did do well, the relievers may always let him down. Look for Don Mattingly to score another decidive 'W' over his former club as Miami keeps their playoff hopes alive. This is a 'false favorite' situation in our opinion, with the underdog being more likely to win the game than the club installed as favorites. In a close game that could go either way, all the value is with the plus money underdogs!




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