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September 5, 2016

Three picks have been released. Two are for today and one is in advance for next weekend!

The NFL season is just around the corner and Sports Profit System clients will recall that we hit a documented and verified 61% last year thanks to an outstanding 41-26 record! That meant SPS topped handicapping charts and it was hardly our first or only impressive campaign. The previous years had also been successful, including a solid 58% mark in the season prior to last! Needless to say, football has historically enlarged our bankrolls and we look forward to another lucrative season ahead.

Take Mississippi +6 spread against Florida State for 3% of the bankroll.

There is no question that the Ole Miss Rebels lost a ton of talent to the NFL draft in the offseason and will have a lot of new pieces in place for this game against the No 4 ranked Florida State Seminoles. That being said, Hugh Freeze has done a great job recruiting the last few years and we wouldn’t be surprised to see some younger players really step up and make a statement this season. Despite their losses, the Rebels do return the best QB in the SEC in Chad Kelley. Kelley had a phenomenal season last year leading an offense that averaged over 40 points per game. Kelley is a wildcard that has shown many times that he is capable of stepping up, putting this team on his shoulders and leading them to victory. With an NFL caliber QB at the helm, it’s hard to see Ole Miss ever completely out of a game this season.

Florida State is one of the odds on favorites to make the College Football Playoff this season, but like the Rebels, they will be breaking in a bunch of new talent as well. Most notably, freshman QB Deondre Francois. While Francois comes into this season highly touted, he is still a freshman and poised to make freshman mistakes. The Florida State offensive line is also suspect and dealing with a number of injuries. Ole Miss has a talented defensive front and pass rush and if the Noles O-line can't find a way to slow them down, they should force Francoise into some quick (and questionable) throws. Francoise will need to be sharp if the Noles want to walk out of Orlando with a victory.

Florida State running back Dalvin Cook is already receiving Heisman talk and next to Kelley, will be the very best player on the field for this matchup. Cook has elite speed and vision and can break the game open on a single carry. That being said, the question marks on the offensive line could also affect the production of Cook. If the defensive front of Ole Miss is able to overpower the FSU O-line it will close down the running lanes and make Cook earn each and every yard he gets. The game plan for Hugh Freeze and the Rebels should be quite simple for this matchup; contain Cook and force the freshman QB to beat them with his arm. If Freeze’s players can implement that gameplan, then Ole Miss will have a great shot at pulling off the upset.  

There has been a lot of talk about the Florida State defense already this season. They are big, they are fast and they are experienced. While they may dominate the ACC conference, the Rebels are no strangers to playing elite defenses. Kelley has been able to navigate some of the toughest defenses in the country and even managed to defeat arguably the best defense in the country (Alabama) on the road last season. Kelley will not be intimidated playing this Florida State team.

The SEC is arguably the toughest conference in the country and with that comes an added measure of respect. We don't believe the oddsmakers have given the Rebels the respect that they deserve in this contest. Meanwhile, everyone in the media is already saving a spot for Florida State in the CFP this season, despite having yet to play a game. The public perception is that Florida State is the better team, however we are not sure that is in fact the case. The Rebels should be able to hang with the Noles in this contest and even contest for the outright victory. Even if they happen to fall short, this is simply too many points to give a QB the caliber of Kelley and believe the points will come into play.

Take Philadelphia Phillies (+104) on the ML against Miami Marlins risking 3% to win 3.12%.
(Eickhoff and Esch must start for wager to have action)

These two NL East clubs have both lost 8 of their last 10 games and are struggling in a big way right now! The difference is that while the Phillies have long been out of contention, the disappointment and frustration in the Marlins clubhouse is much greater, due to their raised expectations. Miami was, and still is in the Wild Card hunt but the fact that they've dropped 4 straight series including to direct rivals such as the Mets, has seen their playoff hopes take a massive hit. They are now 4 games behind the second WC spot and suddenly own a losing record on the season with 68 wins compared to 69 losses.

The fact that their most recent defeat, which saw them fall to an under .500 record was a heart-breaker will only matters more difficult today. The Fish finally played well yesterday and just when it looked like they've done enough to avoid the sweep, the Tribe hit them for 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th inning to hand them another loss! It was a devastating defeat for closer Fernando Rodney and the entire team, especially since the runs came with 2-outs already recorded! The Miami bullpen has really struggled of late and former closer AJ Ramos has had his fair share of hiccups as well. This is a team that is low on confidence right now and can't be trusted to hang onto leads.

What makes this matchup more problematic for them is that they're going up against a team that hits a lot more home runs than they do. The Phillies rank among the lowest in batting average but they do 'go yard' a fair amount of times and might just outslug the Marlins this afternoon. The absence of Justin Bour and Giancarlo Stanton has taken Don Mattingly's two most powerful bats out of the lineup for some time now and without those two sluggers, the 'long ball' has been in short supply for Miami. Add in the fact that the banged up Marcell Ozuna, who has great career numbers against Eickhoff will also miss this contest and the task in front of them gets even more daunting.

This also happens to be their first game back at home after a lengthy road trip and it is no secret that first game back is often the toughest for players as they have been reunited with their families and have certain distractions. Playing at Marlins Park as the 'favorites' only adds pressure for a lineup that hasn't been seeing the ball well and a pitcher who is only making his second ever MLB start! The Phillies on the other hand can play loose and free as despite their losing streak, they are no longer in front of the demanding home crowd. This is a team that has fared better away from Philadelphia anyway and should be able to get to the inexperienced Esch who spent most of the season at Double-A! Jerad Eickhoff, on the other hand, is by now vastly experienced at this level and has been a workhorse for the Phillies this season. He has yet to miss a game and is more likely to record a 'quality start'. The value is with the underdogs in this spot as they are more likely to win the game than the dejected hosts, in our opinion.

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