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October 29, 2016

Three picks were released yesterday for Saturday!

#1: Take Mississippi +4.5 spread against Auburn for 3% of the bankroll.

These two teams are currently trending in opposite directions which makes this play on Ole Miss, that much more appealing. Recent performances have skewed the perception of both teams and we plan on using that to our advantage.

The Auburn Tigers are currently on a four-game winning streak and are coming off arguably their most impressive performance of the season as they not only shut down, but completely dominated the Arkansas Razorbacks, 56-3. That performance alone thrust the Tigers into the National spotlight and already have experts talking about the upcoming showdown in the Iron Bowl with Alabama. Many are expecting that performance to carry over into this matchup with Ole Miss, however we expect there to be a rude awakening for Auburn backers in this contest.

The Ole Miss Rebels have dropped two straight and have mostly fallen out of the good graces of the betting public. That being said, this is still a quality team who has shown their ability to hang with the toughest teams in the country. While they have lost their last two contests, some of that can be forgiven.  The Rebels have played their last two games on the road and will now be back home in the friendly confines of Vaught–Hemingway Stadium where they should have a decisive advantage.

It's extremely difficult to not only play in the South-East conference, but to do so on the road is an even a more daunting task and we believe Auburn will be at a serious disadvantage in this contest. As impressive as the Tigers have been, they have been fortunate to have played most their games at home this season. In fact, this will be just the Tigers' second road game of the season! Their lone road game on the year came against a somewhat disappointing Mississippi State team. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers' performance will withstand a tough contest on the road against what will likely be a very motivated Ole Miss team looking to avoid a third straight loss.

The Auburn defense has played extremely well their last 4 games, however this Ole Miss team has the offense to make things difficult for the Tigers'. Chad Kelley is arguably the best QB in the SEC and has the ability to make plays with his arm as well as his legs. If he is able to break contain and make plays out of the pocket, that could put an extraordinary amount of pressure on the Auburn defenders in the secondary. Playing at home will only elevate the play of Kelley. This is a matchup that could certainly go either way and with the Rebels playing at home and in desperate need of a victory, we believe the points have value in this contest and will likely come into play.

#2: Take Texas +4 spread (buy half a point) against Baylor for 3% of the bankroll.

Looking at the side by side comparison of these teams, on the surface, this is a mismatch and that the Baylor Bears should have a decided advantage. Not only is Baylor known for their prolific and quick scoring offense, but they also head into this contest a perfect 6-0 on the season and are now facing a Texas Longhorns team that has been struggling, having lost 4 of their last 5 games. Many likely think that this will be another 'easy' win for Baylor, however we believe otherwise.

There is no question that the Texas Longhorns have fallen short of expectations this season. Charlie Strong is in the hot seat and this is likely his last opportunity to save his job as Head Coach. At home, against an undefeated conference rival, it's now or never for Strong and his team. Although they have been struggling to pick up victories, this Longhorn team is littered with talent, they have just had a hard time putting it all together for a full 4 quarters. We expect this to be the matchup where everything comes together for Texas in such an important situation.

While everyone considers this a tough test for Texas, we believe this will be a tougher test for Baylor. Baylor is a program that is notorious for taking the easy road early in the season and this year is no different. Their schedule up until this point has been one of the easiest of the Power 5 schools. They have yet to play an opponent that ranks higher than #71 in the country. This will be the Bears first real test of the year and now it comes not only on the road against a conference opponent, but also against an opponent who is no doubt desperate for a victory.

While Texas may have lost 4 of their last 5 games, it's extremely important to note that those four losses have all come away from their home stadium! Texas will finally be playing a game at home and they have yet to taste defeat on this field this season! The lack of quality competition is going to hurt the Bears in this contest as we expect Texas to pull off the outright victory. Even if they fall short (once again), we expect them to fight to the very end and be competitive enough to cover this spread.

#3: Take Florida State +4.5 spread against Clemson for 3% of the bankroll.

Public perception is certainly playing a role in the oddsmakers decision to list the Florida State Seminoles as not only home underdogs, but underdogs of more than a field goal. Tallahassee is an incredibly tough place for opposing teams to play, especially for the Clemson Tigers. Clemson is just 1-11 in their last 12 trips to Doak Campbell Stadium and now are not only expected to win, but expected to win by a fairly convincing margin. We simply don't see that happening.

Florida State was considered an offseason threat to make the College Football Playoff this season, however a couple of setbacks against Louisville and North Carolina have dashed their hopes. That being said, they now are in a position to play the role of spoiler and potentially knock the Tigers not only from the ranks of the unbeatens but also potentially out of the playoff contention themselves. We expect them to use that as motivation in this contest.

Although they are undefeated, Clemson has proven to be vulnerable at times with a few close calls. They should have (arguably) lost their matchup with NC State prior to their bye week and that could have laid the blueprint for Florida State in this contest. Let’s not forget, Florida State is littered with plenty of talented athletes and are no means a pushover team. Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook has been a force over the last three games and Clemson will allow yards on the ground. Cook could be a difference maker in this contest. Also, Clemson has had an issue with turnovers this season and has been turning the ball over frequently (16 times this season). The Florida State defense has been solid the last few weeks and if they can capitalize on some of the mistakes that Clemson will make in this contest, then they should be able to keep this one close. 

Florida State has shown their ability to put points on the board against some strong defensive teams this season and we believe they'll be able to do the same in this contest. We expect this to be a hard-fought battle with either team capable of pulling out the victory. We expect the points to prove to be valuable in this contest as FSU covers the number, if not pull off the outright victory.

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