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October 28, 2016

Three picks have been released for Saturday!

SPS recommends one wager tonight. Please scroll down to view the details.

Take South Florida -6 spread (buy half a point) against Navy for 3% of the bankroll.

The Navy Midshipmen are an impressive 5-1 on the season and hold a notable win over the then highly ranked Houston Cougars which spoiled their hope for a perfect season. Navy is having a much better season than many had predicted and are now starting to gain national attention. With the national exposure, they are already grabbing the eyes of the average sports bettor which, as we know, isn't always the best thing for a team from a wagering standpoint. It's this attention that is likely to burn Navy backers at the ticket window in this matchup.

There is no secret as to what Navy's game plan heading into each game is. They are a team that is going to run the football and are going to run often. Their Triple-Option offense can be a catalyst, but can also be a hindrance as well. Many will likely look at this matchup and see the number 4 rushing offense in the country, facing off against a South Florida run defense that has struggled against the run and is giving up an average of over 200 yards per game on the ground. While it may appear, that on paper, Navy should have an easy time moving the ball on the ground, recent events seem to lead us in the other direction.

The South Florida Bulls are coming off their first conference loss of the season at the hands of the Temple Owls. In that matchup, the Bulls defense was torched for nearly 300 yards on the ground. It was an incredibly poor display of tackling and run stopping and there is no question that head coach Willie Taggart has spent much of the week drilling his team in run stopping tactics. Given the one-dimensional nature of the Midshipmen's offense, we expect South Florida to sell out on stopping the run and forcing Navy to throw the football which is something that they are not accustomed to doing. Having been destroyed on the ground by Temple in their last game, sets up for a bad situation for the Midshipmen and will likely aide in their downfall in this contest.

On offense, South Florida has been nearly unstoppable, especially at home. This is a team that has an extremely potent offense led by QB Quinton Flowers. Flowers is the catalyst of this offense with his ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs. Flowers has thrown for 1,722 yards with 15 scores and 5 picks this season while running for another 745 with 8 scores. There have been other key contributors such as running back Marlon Mack who has 659 yards with 10 scores and WR Rodney Adams that has 502 yards with 4 scores. This is an offense that is averaging over 42 points per game which is good for 11th in the nation. If there is one thing that we have seen with Navy is that they have been susceptible on the defensive end. They simply don't have the athletes or playmakers that some of the other schools have and that is going to hurt them in this contest. We don't believe they will be able to slow down Flowers and the South Florida offense.

It's interesting that the oddsmakers have listed the Midshipmen as nearly touchdown underdogs in this contest despite their 5-1 record on the season. That being said, we certainly believe these odds are justified as this is simply a bad matchup for Navy, with South Florida coming off a loss. Navy will likely keep this game competitive for a while, but the South Florida offense will simply outscore the Middies and win this by a touchdown or more.

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